Mystery continues to engulf Tajikistan’s first family, which appears preoccupied with a destabilizing power struggle. The continuing uncertainty surrounding the president and his close relatives suggests that a bout of instability could be in the offing for Central Asia’s poorest nation.

In recent days, people close to Khasan Sadulloyev — one of the most powerful men in Tajikistan, as well as President Imomali Rahmon’s brother-in-law — have vigorously denied rumors circulating in Dushanbe that he was shot and killed in early May by Rahmon’s son Rustam. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. At the same time, Sadulloyev has not been seen in public since the supposed shooting occurred.
In comments made to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Umed Davlatzoda, the deputy chairman of Orienbank, an entity controlled by Sadulloyev, derided reports of the shooting, attributing them to the «tattling» of idle gossipers. «We would come up with an official denial, if the story came from a [credible] source,» Davlatzoda said. The bank official insisted Sadulloyev is «safe and sound.»
Regardless of whether Sadulloyev is alive or dead, the mere existence of the rumor has the potential to inflict a mortal wound on Rahmon’s administration. An important element in any authoritarian regime is the aura of invincibility. The Sadulloyev controversy is stoking the impression that the presidential clan is gripped by dysfunction. Within the Soviet and post-Soviet context, a leader who is not able to exhibit mastery over developments, or who shows any sign of weakness or hesitation, traditionally has faced a strong and often successful challenge to his authority. The most recent example of the «weak Tsar» syndrome leading to regime change was Askar Akayev’s downfall in Kyrgyzstan in 2005. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Helping to fan speculation about instability at the top of Tajikistan’s political pyramid, Rahmon did not attend public ceremonies held in connection with the Victory Day holiday on May 9.
Conjecture about Rahmon’s grip on power has been building since last November, when a bomb ripped apart the official car of Maj. Gen. Rajabali Rakhmonaliyev, the head of Tajikistan’s National Guard, which essentially serves as Rahmon’s personal self-defense force. Rakhmonaliyev was not in the car at the time, and was unscathed in the incident. Days later, a bomb blast rocked downtown Dushanbe outside a conference center where a European Union-organized gathering had been due to take place. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Authorities immediately said the incident had a «terrorist» connection, but some regional analysts in retrospect suggest that the bombing might have been connected to a brewing power struggle.
On November 16, 2007, an analysis posted on the Ariana news website — which focuses on political, economic and social developments in Tajikistan — indicated that potential successors to Rahmon were vying to position themselves for a possible «forced change of the elite.» The commentary described Rakhmonaliyev as one of the main contenders to succeed Rahmon, adding that the car bombing was designed to remove him from the succession picture.
Sadulloyev also was identified as a top presidential possibility. Other possible candidates, according to the Ariana analysis, were: Dushanbe Mayor Makhmadsaid Ubaidulloyev; Amirsho Miraliyev, a top presidential aide; and Nuriddin Rahmonov, a presidential relative who wields vast influence over the personnel policy of the governmental bureaucracy.
Rumors that Rahmon was ill seemed to drive speculation about a possible political change back in November. Six months later, however, an image of incompetence has cloaked Rahmon administration, stoked by the troubles experienced by Tajikistan last winter, when the country suffered for prolonged periods without power and heat. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The winter of discontent has been followed by a spring of fury, as many Tajiks have grown alarmed by the skyrocketing cost of staples, especially bread. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The shifting perception of the government’s ability to provide for the population would seem to leave Rahmon in a more vulnerable position than ever before.
Some analysts speculate that Rustam Rahmon’s supposed involvement in the mysterious episode concerning Sadulloyev could be connected with an attempt to thrust himself into the purported line of succession. Little is known about the younger Rahmon, who is believed to be in his early 20s. He reportedly studied in the United States.
Regional political analysts say that, given a total information blackout maintained by officials, there is no way to independently confirm whether Sadulloyev was in fact shot, and, if he was, whether he survived. Regardless, political developments in Tajikistan in the coming weeks and months will merit scrutiny. At this stage, history is not on Rahmon’s side.
Posted May 16, 2008 © Eurasianet

EURASIANET

Источник: http://www.eurasianet.org

On 13 May, in the campus of Central Asia University, a representative of the Yahoo company made a presentation on opportunities of the Internet

Nekrouz Sarbalandov, public relations officer of Central Asia University in Khorog told Pamir Media that Ms. Joanna Erhard, a representative of the Yahoo company presented a thematic lecture on modern opportunities of the Internet.

Ms. Erhard told about the new trends in the global information networks, opportunities for search of data, new aspects of communication, exchange of experience, etc.

Ms. Erhard studied international management in France and Germany. At present, she works for the Yahoo affiliate in Munich.

Pamir Media

On 14-15 May, Dushanbe is going to host the first national forum of non-governmental organizations. More than 40 delegates from all regions of the country will discuss two important documents – “National Program of Development for NGOs in Tajikistan” and “Principles of Activities among NGOs in Tajikistan”

“The implementation of these two basic documents will help mobilize human and intellectual capacities, and to strengthen personal responsibility of every individual for the destiny of our country”, — said Shamsiddin Karimov, director of the Tajik Development Foundation. He added that the documents are designed within the framework of long-term and mid-term national development concepts – “National Development Strategy for 2006-2015” and “Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper for 2006-2008”.

NANSMIT Monitoring Service

“Corporative management: coverage in the media” – this is the title of a round table held in Dushanbe on 12 May

The round table is organized by the International Financial Corporation (IFC) Project in Central Asia.

The IFC experts told Tajik journalists about the principles of coverage of corporative management in the media and about the importance of this.

The workshop was conducted in an interactive format moderated by an experienced economist from Kazakhstan.

NANSMIT Monitoring Service

Tajik artist Zebo Davlatshoyeva won the third prize at the Central Asian cartoon contest “The second ancient profession”

The winners were announced in Almaty, Kazakhstan on 5 March, at a press conference dedicated to the Free Press Day. The event was organized by the Union of Kazakh Journalists, the international fund “Adil Soz” and the UNESCO cluster bureau in Almaty. The second participant from Tajikistan, Khairullo Davlatov, editor of the Bomdod weekly (Kurgan-Tube) received a rewarding certificate.

The first contest was organized and launched in 2006 by the Union of Kazakh Journalists and the international fund “Adil Soz”. Due to support of IFEX and the UNESCO cluster bureau the contest has become regional. In 2008, it was held in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Participants sent more than 200 original works in five nominations.

The winner of grand prix is Sergei Korsun from the Kazakh city of Pavlodar.
Murat Dilmanov and Nikolai Verevochkin from Almaty received the second prize. The third prize was given to Galym Smagululy, Almaty; Sergei Birkle, Kostanai; Ruslan Valitov, Bishkek; and Zebo Davlatshoyeva, Dushanbe.

NANSMIT Monitoring Service

Channeling the spirit of Joseph Stalin, officials in Tajikistan, Central Asia’s poorest state, have asked residents in the capital Dushanbe to give up part of their salaries «voluntarily» to help finance construction of a hydropower plant.

The fear of government reprisals is compelling many Tajiks to comply.
Makhmadsaid Ubaidullayev, the speaker of the upper chamber of Tajikistan’s parliament, as well as mayor of Dushanbe, first broached the idea of public contributions on April 29. He indicated that if every working individual in Dushanbe donated half of his/her salary for May and June, the state could raise roughly $10 million. Confident of a positive response, Ubaidullayev immediately instructed government agencies and state enterprises to withhold 50 percent of the salaries normally due employees.
For many working outside the public sector, Ubaidullayev’s request seemed absurd, given that government mismanagement is a major factor in the country’s current socio-economic crisis. Still, few people are willing to risk non-compliance. Government institutions are believed to be keeping track of who contributes and who doesn’t. Thus, many believe that those not obeying Ubaidullayev’s informal directive, especially if they operate small- or medium-sized businesses, will pay a far higher price in the very near future, via audits by the tax inspectorate or other legal difficulties.
Local observers say the move is certain to fuel anger and a sense of hopelessness among a large portion of Tajikistan’s population, which endured the misery associated with a severe lack of heating and power during last winter’s deep freeze. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Officials suggest that the money, raised by what amounts to an arbitrary and confiscatory tax, will be used to help finance the Rogun hydroelectric power plant, a long-stalled project that could shore up Tajikistan energy security. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Experts, however, say that the $10 million projected to be raised from the coerced assessment is monetarily insignificant given that, according to some estimates, it will take $1.5 billion to finish the Rogun project. Government officials, meanwhile, put the cost of completion at $550 million. Regardless of the construction costs, the government’s action is unjustifiable when considering that it stands to cause severe hardships for tens, if not hundreds of thousands of Tajiks.
A recent admission made by Shukurjon Zukhurov, the minister of labor and social protection, helps to illustrate the pain inflicted on the population. Zukhurov admitted that more than a half of Tajikistani live below the poverty line. The minimal monthly salary in Tajikistan is 20 somoni (less than $6), and the average salary at the beginning of 2008 was 213 somoni (about $60). Even in normal times, many Dushanbe residents would be hard-pressed to cover gaps created by what is effectively the theft of a month’s salary. But these are not normal times for Tajikistan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
The country is still reeling from the hardships created by the winter weather. On top of that, government malfeasance seems to have created a debt time-bomb. Over the past three years, the country’s external debt has almost doubled, climbing to $1.2 billion from about $683 million in 2005. How President Imomali Rahmon’s administration will be able to meet its debt obligations remains a mystery, as the government’s annual budget amounts to an estimated $700 million.
From the popular perspective, the situation is already dire. The country is suffering from runaway inflation, driven mainly by the rapid rise in prices for basic foodstuffs. According to data compiled by the State Statistics Committee, the cost of basic food products rose by about 20 percent in 2007. Unofficial data suggests that rising prices made a much steeper ascent, with the cost of some items rising by as much as 500 percent. Tajikistan’s overall inflation rate in 2007 was pegged at 19.7 percent.
The combination of poverty and inflation are threatening to create a social catastrophe. According to a recent statement issued by the UN World Food Program, 550,000 Tajiks are suffering from malnutrition, and roughly 260,000 are in need of «emergency assistance.» The UN agency said about two-thirds of Tajiks were living in poverty.
Rather than take action that could alleviate the food crisis, the government literally seems preoccupied with cosmetic issues. On April 29, the same day Ubaidullayev was announcing the dam tax, President Rahmon issued a ban on tinting car windows.
Public anger might not be so great over making «voluntary» contributions to state coffers, if citizens believed the money would be devoted to the intended purpose. But many believe their hard-earned somonis will simply disappear into the country’s vast sinkhole of official corruption.
Several important pieces of evidence of corrupt practices have come to light in recent months. Perhaps the most notorious instance concerns the International Monetary Fund’s demand, made in March, that the Tajik government repay $47 million in loans. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. On April 30, Tajik officials were compelled to agree to a joint monitoring program to monitor the future activities of the National Bank of Tajikistan, which had been accused by the IMF of fraudulent practices in connection with the loans.
Many Tajiks have also been shocked to learn that Rahmon’s administration has paid over $120 million in legal fees over the past three years to a British law firm in connection with an embezzlement case involving the Tajik Aluminum Plant. According to papers filed with a London court, the British firm continues to bill the Tajik government $11 million every month.
Given the depths of government venality, some observers note with irony that southern Tajikistan in recent weeks has been best by a plague of locusts. Over 76,000 hectares of arable land has been consumed by the pests so far. In all, about 200,000 hectares of cotton and wheat fields are under threat, according to the Asia-Plus news agency.

Posted May 7, 2008 © Eurasianet
http://www.eurasianet.org

EURASIANET

Источник: http://www.eurasianet.org

Channeling the spirit of Joseph Stalin, officials in Tajikistan, Central Asia’s poorest state, have asked residents in the capital Dushanbe to give up part of their salaries «voluntarily» to help finance construction of a hydropower plant. The fear of government reprisals is compelling many Tajiks to comply.

Makhmadsaid Ubaidullayev, the speaker of the upper chamber of Tajikistan’s parliament, as well as mayor of Dushanbe, first broached the idea of public contributions on April 29. He indicated that if every working individual in Dushanbe donated half of his/her salary for May and June, the state could raise roughly $10 million. Confident of a positive response, Ubaidullayev immediately instructed government agencies and state enterprises to withhold 50 percent of the salaries normally due employees.

For many working outside the public sector, Ubaidullayev’s request seemed absurd, given that government mismanagement is a major factor in the country’s current socio-economic crisis. Still, few people are willing to risk non-compliance. Government institutions are believed to be keeping track of who contributes and who doesn’t. Thus, many believe that those not obeying Ubaidullayev’s informal directive, especially if they operate small- or medium-sized businesses, will pay a far higher price in the very near future, via audits by the tax inspectorate or other legal difficulties.

Local observers say the move is certain to fuel anger and a sense of hopelessness among a large portion of Tajikistan’s population, which endured the misery associated with a severe lack of heating and power during last winter’s deep freeze.

Officials suggest that the money, raised by what amounts to an arbitrary and confiscatory tax, will be used to help finance the Rogun hydroelectric power plant, a long-stalled project that could shore up Tajikistan energy security.

Experts, however, say that the $10 million projected to be raised from the coerced assessment is monetarily insignificant given that, according to some estimates, it will take $1.5 billion to finish the Rogun project. Government officials, meanwhile, put the cost of completion at $550 million. Regardless of the construction costs, the government’s action is unjustifiable when considering that it stands to cause severe hardships for tens, if not hundreds of thousands of Tajiks.

A recent admission made by Shukurjon Zukhurov, the minister of labor and social protection, helps to illustrate the pain inflicted on the population. Zukhurov admitted that more than a half of Tajikistani live below the poverty line. The minimal monthly salary in Tajikistan is 20 somoni (less than $6), and the average salary at the beginning of 2008 was 213 somoni (about $60). Even in normal times, many Dushanbe residents would be hard-pressed to cover gaps created by what is effectively the theft of a month’s salary. But these are not normal times for Tajikistan.

The country is still reeling from the hardships created by the winter weather. On top of that, government malfeasance seems to have created a debt time-bomb. Over the past three years, the country’s external debt has almost doubled, climbing to $1.2 billion from about $683 million in 2005. How President Imomali Rahmon’s administration will be able to meet its debt obligations remains a mystery, as the government’s annual budget amounts to an estimated $700 million.

From the popular perspective, the situation is already dire. The country is suffering from runaway inflation, driven mainly by the rapid rise in prices for basic foodstuffs. According to data compiled by the State Statistics Committee, the cost of basic food products rose by about 20 percent in 2007. Unofficial data suggests that rising prices made a much steeper ascent, with the cost of some items rising by as much as 500 percent. Tajikistan’s overall inflation rate in 2007 was pegged at 19.7 percent.

The combination of poverty and inflation are threatening to create a social catastrophe. According to a recent statement issued by the UN World Food Program, 550,000 Tajiks are suffering from malnutrition, and roughly 260,000 are in need of «emergency assistance.» The UN agency said about two-thirds of Tajiks were living in poverty.

Rather than take action that could alleviate the food crisis, the government literally seems preoccupied with cosmetic issues. On April 29, the same day Ubaidullayev was announcing the dam tax, President Rahmon issued a ban on tinting car windows.

Public anger might not be so great over making «voluntary» contributions to state coffers, if citizens believed the money would be devoted to the intended purpose. But many believe their hard-earned somonis will simply disappear into the country’s vast sinkhole of official corruption.

Several important pieces of evidence of corrupt practices have come to light in recent months. Perhaps the most notorious instance concerns the International Monetary Fund’s demand, made in March, that the Tajik government repay $47 million in loans. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. On April 30, Tajik officials were compelled to agree to a joint monitoring program to monitor the future activities of the National Bank of Tajikistan, which had been accused by the IMF of fraudulent practices in connection with the loans.
Many Tajiks have also been shocked to learn that Rahmon’s administration has paid over $120 million in legal fees over the past three years to a British law firm in connection with an embezzlement case involving the Tajik Aluminum Plant. According to papers filed with a London court, the British firm continues to bill the Tajik government $11 million every month.

Given the depths of government venality, some observers note with irony that southern Tajikistan in recent weeks has been best by a plague of locusts. Over 76,000 hectares of arable land has been consumed by the pests so far. In all, about 200,000 hectares of cotton and wheat fields are under threat, according to the Asia-Plus news agency.

Konstantin Parshin

Источник: EurasiaNet http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav050708.shtml

On 3 May, Tajik media professional celebrated the International Free Press Day in Dushanbe and Khujand

These cultural events were organized by the Union of Journalists of Tajikistan, National Association of Independent Media, Tajikistan (NANSMIT), and other media organizations. Authorities of Sughd province, the Youth Center in Khujand, the Tajik branch of Open Society Institute, and the OSCE Center in Dushanbe also helped in organizing the vents.

Among thematic events, there was a round table discussion on the topic “Freedom of speech and problems of information security in Tajikistan”. Nuriddin Karshibayev, chairman of NANSMIT says that the situation in the sphere of freedom of expression can be characterized as stagnation. Referring to the principles of the national information security, the authorities create impediments for the development of free press. Participants of the discussion stressed that freedom of expression cannot pose any threats to the information security; on the contrary, is helps saturate the information space.

At the round table, NANSMIT presented its original publications: “Monitoring of Freedom of Speech and Media in Tajikistan in 2006” and “Rights of journalists: questions and answers”.

NANSMIT, Monitoring Service

The board of the Democratic Party of Tajikistan congratulated Tajik journalists on the International Free Press Day

The appeal of the Democratic Party of Tajikistan (DPT) says in particular that “establishment of freedom for the media is one of the strategic goals in the program of DPT”.

“Another confirmation to that is the creation of newspaper “Adolat”, and publishing of this outlet abroad in the conditions when the Communist Party ruled the country, — says the appeal. – We have had famous journalists in our ranks: Imomnazari Kholnazar, Saidkosimi Kiyompour, Shavkati Rajabiyon, Olimi Zarobek, Abdurofe Rabizoda, Shakhriyai Adhamzod, Abdulvokhidi Alamkhon, Jovid Mukim, Nasimi Narzullo, Odil Islomi, Makhmadali Saidov, Bekhruzi Zabekhullo, Mashrabi Abdullo, Sadriddin Khasanzoda, Rajabi Mirzo, Faizi Mirasan, Angurshoi Angursho, Shojamoli Shojamol, and many others”.

The DPT board noted that the party will always remember those who were killed during the years of the civil war.

The Party officials also mentioned in their appeal that the Free Press Day coincides with the birthday of Makhmadruzi Iskandarov, the leader of DPT who was imprisoned by the current regime. On this day, the Party celebrates “The Open Day” inviting any visitors.

http://toptj.com/

On 3 May, the Khatlon province administration convened a meeting in the city of Kurgan-Tube to discuss the issues of celebrating the forthcoming National Unity Day

The administration invited journalists to attend the meeting of the steering committee. However, right after the beginning of the meeting, deputy prime minister of the country, Ms. Rukiya Kurbanova asked the journalists to leave the premises.

The journalists themselves interpreted the behavior of the high-ranked official as “a certain gift for the International Free Press Day”.

NANSMIT, Monitoring Service