Архив рубрики: Analytics

Countering Extremism in Tajikistan

Government tries to obstruct Islamic State recruitment with public information as well as arrests.

In their battle to stop people going to Syria to join Islamic State militants, the authorities in Tajikistan are using a media campaign as well as the threat of prosecution.

In July 2014, Tajikistan introduced a law making it a criminal offence to fight abroad, reflecting official concerns about the numbers joining Islamic State, which has significant numbers of Central Asians in its ranks. Officials put the number of Tajik nationals at 300, although this seems to include wives and children accompanying men who have joined up to fight.

Officials have emphasised they are prepared to offer amnesty to anyone willing to return to Tajikistan voluntarily, as long as no crime has been committed.

Sharif Qurbonzoda, chief prosecutor for the northern Soghd region, says travelling to Syria is not always treated as an offence.

“We have issued instructions that [just] making a trip to such countries should not result in a criminal case against the individual concerned. A criminal case can be launched only if we have enough information and evidence to show that the individual was a member of an armed group in a foreign country,” he told reporters.

Some of those who have returned from Syria have been freed without charge. Last summer, two men from Soghd’s Spitamen district gave themselves up to the police on their return. After an investigation by the prosecution service found that they had not broken the law, they were released and are now at home working as farm labourers.

The authorities emphasise that they will prosecute where there is evidence pointing to a crime. The prosecution service has cited a figure of 85 individuals facing criminal investigation, most of them in absentia. In Soghd, Qurbonzoda said criminal cases had been launched against 35 individuals. Some had been detained while others were in Syria. In the southern Khatlon region, at least 24 locals are currently in Syria, according to the regional prosecutor’s office.

In November, 28 individuals from the Istaravshan and Kanibadam districts of Soghd were arrested on suspicion of belonging to Jamaat Ansarullah, a group that has been accused of recruiting people to go and fight for Islamic State.

In Isfara, also in the north, more than 20 people from a cluster of villages have gone to Syria, according to Obidjon Ahmedov, the district official in charge of religious affairs. Most are from one settlement, Chorkishlak.

A local resident who spoke to IWPR on condition of anonymity said the number included wives and children. It is unclear whether the move was coordinated or how they were recruited. Some seem to have left from Russia, where they would have been among the hundreds of thousands of Tajik nationals working as migrant labour.

In a bid to deter more people from going, the Tajik government strategy includes a media campaign with video messages recorded by relatives of jihadist fighters. The Khatlon regional administration has circulated an appeal signed by a group of young people calling on their countrymen fighting in Iraq and Syria to come home.

In late January, Soghd regional TV and two private channels broadcast a programme showing two men who were under arrest on suspicion of recruiting fighters for Syria. In the footage, the two admitted wanting to “liberate Muslims” and help create an Islamic state. The programme also included interviews with the men’s parents, who condemned their actions. One father expressed regret for his son’s actions and warned other parents to be vigilant.

Another programme featured the father of a man from Spitamen who was arrested last year together with nine accomplices and accused of leading a local cell of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. This group is allied with the Taleban and active in Pakistan and Afghanistan; its links with Islamic State are unclear.

Akbar Sharifov, a police spokesman in Soghd region, told IWPR that the aim of such programmes was to stop others joining extremist groups.

“In showing these people, we want to appeal to our citizens not to make the mistakes these men have made,” he said.

Abdumanon Raupov, from the village of Chorkuh in Isfara district, told IWPR that broadcasts of this kind were timely, because “the public will be made aware of the real reasons behind recruitment for the war in Syria”.

Local commentators say the people recruited by Islamic State are not always committed jihadists.

“I think they initially are offered a lot of money, and then their passports are taken away and burnt,” said Rustam Davlatshoev, a lawyer from Khatlon region. “They’re left with no choice but to obey the orders of these radical groups, under threat of execution,” he said.

Ahmedov, the official in Isfara district, said recruiters cynically exploited people’s ignorance about the situation in Syria in order to get them to take part in a conflict where “Muslims are killing Muslims.”

“These groups use the fact that people are not well-informed. Sending people to Syria has become a kind of business for them,” he said.

Nematullo Mirsaidov, a Tajik journalist who writes about religious extremism, says the people drawn to Syria fall into two groups – the true believers in jihadist ideology and those who get trapped into it by economic misfortune.

“They end up in the conflict zone due to their dire economic position at home, or if they are burdened by debt while working as labour migrants,” Mirsaidov said.

For a related story, see  Does Islamic State Threaten Central Asia?

Tilav Rasulzade is an IWPR contributor in northern Tajikistan. Lola Olimova is IWPR Tajikistan editor

https://iwpr.net/global-voices/countering-extremism-tajikistan

Slaying Of Tajik Opposition Leader Draws Nemtsov Comparisons

Umarali Quvatov was a fierce critic of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, the founder of a banned opposition party considered to be extremist by Dushanbe, and a tycoon-in-exile who faced fraud charges at home.

So his March 5 slaying on the streets of Istanbul, where he settled after fleeing Tajikistan in 2012, immediately led to questions of whether it was a politically motivated assassination.

Many came from fellow political opponents of Rahmon, whose ruling People’s Democratic Party just won a landslide victory in flawed parliamentary elections.

«Considering that Quvatov was a politician, his death concerns us,» said Rahmatullo Zoyirov, chairman of the Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan, which failed to win seats in the March 1 elections.

«His killing was not accidental. It was pre-planned,» he told RFE/RL’s Tajik Service the morning after the killing.

Murky Details

Details on Quvatov’s killing and the continuing investigation are scant. According to Turkish media, the 47-year-old Quvatov was shot once in the head from behind, at close range, by a Tajik-speaking man. The unidentified assailant immediately fled the scene.

ALSO READ: Tajik Opposition Tycoon Quvatov Killed In Istanbul

 

The attack took place in Istanbul’s central Fatih district at approximately 10:30 p.m., after Quvatov and his family had dined at the home of a Tajik citizenidentified only as «Suleyman.»

Quvatov’s cousin and leading Group 24 member, Sharofiddin Gadoev, told RFE/RL by telephone that the man was Sulaimon Qayumov, who had been living in Turkey for a few months and had portrayed himself as a Quvatov sympathizer.

Qayumov, who reportedly left the crime scene before investigators arrived, was arrested on the morning of March 6, according to Turkish media.

A video report by haberler.com aired images of Quvatov’s dead body, covered with newspapers, lying on a street cordoned off by police. His sobbing wife and children can be seen being led to emergency vehicles before Quvatov’s body is driven away.

Counterterrorism experts are reportedly involved in the homicide investigation.

Open Season On Opposition?

A representative of the Tajik Foreign Ministry, who spoke to RFE/RL on condition of anonymity early on March 6, said the ministry had only heard about the incident through the media and was awaiting official information from Turkey.

But the killing, coming just days after the slaying of Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov in Moscow, led some to draw parallels.

Rajabi Mirzo, an independent political analyst, described Quvatov’s death in a Facebook post as a «shameful and terrible event» that could be compared with Nemtsov’s killing. «Nemtsov was killed the day before the announced a rally, and Quvatov after the announcement of the [parliamentary] election results,» he wrote.

Tajik Communist Party Chairman Shodi Shabdolov, who recently called the March 1 elections «a political farce,» described Quvatov’s killing as a «bad signal.»

«He had no special authority or influence in Tajikistan,» Shabdolov said of Quvatov. «But he acted as an opposition leader, and killing him in this way, perhaps, could lead to protests.»

Quvatov’s supporters, meanwhile, have taken to social media to mourn the loss of their leader, with some suggesting the Tajik authorities were involved.

Leading Group 24 member Gadoev, who lives in exile in Spain, directly accused Tajik security services of the killing in a video posted on YouTubeon March 6.

«The Tajik government had been asking many governments, many times, to catch and extradite Umarali Quvatov to Tajikistan but did not succeed,» he said. «Killing him was the only way to silence the opposition.»

No Friend Of The President

Quvatov’s short political pedigree does not compare with that of Nemtsov’s, but the former tycoon had certainly riled the Tajik authorities in recent years. Rahmon’s government accused him of creating an extremist organization and seeking to change the constitutional order in Tajikistan.

Quvatov was once known as a successful businessman with close commercial ties to Rahmon’s family. But amid business disputes and allegations of fraud, Quvatov left the country in 2012 and went on to become an ardent critic of the Tajik government and media.

He established his opposition Group 24, which the Tajik Supreme Court banned just before a planned antipresidential rally in Dushanbe in 2014. His extradition was sought by Dushanbe after he was arrested in Turkey for visa violations, but he was released in February and relatively little had been heard from him since.

Doubts Raised

Despite his reputation as a thorn in Rahmon’s side, and the many who are quick to connect the Tajik government to Quvatov’s killing, Dushanbe itself has reserved comment pending further information.

Saifullo Safarov, deputy director at the Center for Strategic Studies, a Dushanbe-based think tank that is close to the presidential office, suggested Quvatov’s death was related to his business activities.

He said the Tajik government had no reason to go after Quvatov or other opposition figures living out of the country.

«The government does not care about them,» Safarov said. «They are free to live abroad.»

Written by Michael Scollon based on reporting by RFE/RL Tajik Service correspondents Salimjon Aioubov and Khiromon Bakoeva in Prague, and Mirzonabi Kholiqov in Dushanbe

http://www.rferl.org/content/tajikistan-quvatov-killing-turkey-opposition-nemtsov/26886088.html

Is There ‘Political Space’ For Central Asia’s Opposition?

Opposition groups and figures in Central Asia face a very tough task. They are battling for a “political space” in a region where the ultimate priority for the governments is regime survival.

Simply put: Central Asian governments don’t look kindly upon challengers.

Indeed, there seems to be no opportunity for political opposition in some of the Central Asian states. But in the last half decade the world has seen challenges to entrenched authorities, for example in Burma and the Middle East, where five years ago few could have foreseen such changes taking place.

RFE/RL’s Turkmen Service, known locally as Azatlyk, organized a roundtable to examine the state of the opposition in Central Asia today, what opportunities such groups and people have to carve out a niche in politics, and the obstacles that stand in their way.

RFE/RL’s Turkmen Service Director Mohammad Tahir moderated a discussion on the topic. The panelists were Muhiddin Kabiri, the head of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan; Edil Baisalov, noted Kyrgyz political activist; John MacLeod, a senior editor at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting and noted Central Asian specialist; and myself. (Both Kabiri and Baisalov also have experience as opposition leaders and members of the government.)

To understand where Central Asia’s opposition is today, and where it might be headed tomorrow, it is necessary to remember when it all started, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when there was a hope that Eastern Europe could prove a model for Central Asia.

MacLeod said at that time there were processes that looked similar. “I think that Central Asia had a lot in common with Eastern European and western portions of the Soviet Union at the beginning in that you had the Communist Party struggling to come to terms with the break-up and you had a kind of a broad popular movement…many of them [led by] former dissidents…”

In the first six months after the collapse of the USSR, opposition groups in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan moved quickly, perhaps too quickly, and they set the stage for the situation throughout Central Asia today.

In Uzbekistan, students, Islamic groups, and the parliament challenged President Islam Karimov. In Tajikistan, the various political forces unleashed by independence pulled the country into a civil war.

This contributed to the development of the regimes in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan where, as MacLeod explained, “the leaders of the then Communist Party effectively captured the state, they captured the agenda, they quickly rounded-up and removed the opposition either forcing them to leave the country, putting them in prison, and certainly destroying their ability to mobilize people.”

The governments in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan were more tolerant allowing political parties to register and permitting independent media but working to rein in these forces when they became a nuisance.

Until mid-1997 Tajikistan was consumed by civil war. The war ended with a deal for government to share power with the opposition it had been fighting militarily. Originally the opposition, which included secular groups but was dominated by the Islamic Renaissance Party, had 30 percent of the places in government. That percentage has dwindled gradually (and after the March 1 parliamentary elections has disappeared) and along with it the political space for Tajikistan’s opposition.

Kabiri noted, “It’s very difficult now for our party to be the only [legally registered] Islamic party in the region. From one side we’re trying to keep our members and followers in favor of the law; from another side we have a lot of social and economic problems produced by migration and the situation in Afghanistan.”

Kyrgyzstan was the Western democracies’ great hope to be a model for Central Asia and in some ways it still is. Despite protests twice ousting the country’s presidents, and the violence that accompanied the second ouster and subsequent ethnic clashes in the south, Kyrgyzstan remains the only Central Asian country where the political opposition has ample space to maneuver.

But is it a model other Central Asian countries can follow?

According to Baisalov, not really. “I don’t think actually that Kyrgyzstan is different because of the strength of the opposition. I see it differently; it’s because of the weakness of the state,” he said.

The panelists looked at the near-term future for the opposition, keeping in mind that leadership, but not necessarily regime change is not far away as the two “old men” of the region — Karimov and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev — are well into their 70s and rumored to have health issues.

MacLeod predicted the change of leaders in those two countries “wouldn’t lead to a sudden upsurge in democratic debate and discussion.”

Kabiri pointed out the paradox of a strong opposition in Central Asia saying, “If the opposition wants to be stronger it means that the opposition should move to the right or become more radical. But to become more radical, to move further to the right, it means that the situation will become more dangerous in the region as a whole.” He concluded: “I feel that in our situation in Central Asia it’s not possible for opposition parties or groups to be stronger than they are now.”

And Kabiri gave a good reason why when comparing political change in Eastern Europe to Central Asia. “Because our area is different, surrounded by such countries as Russia, China, and Afghanistan so the priority in our region is stability and fighting against terrorism and radicalism, not human rights or democracy.”

Baisalov offered this view.“I think the future is more similar to our neighbors to the south like Afghanistan and Pakistan rather than the Eastern Europe that we wanted to have as a model,” he said.

And Baisalov indicated even within Central Asia there is an opinion that perhaps preserving the status quo is the best goal for the nearfuture. “We wish even more for ourselves for stability and security in our region because what we’ve seen in the past decade is [the] many lessons of the so-called Arab spring. What sort of toil and hardship and uncounted tragedies can bring some opening up of the political space in societies, which simply put are not ready?”

As one could imagine, there are many interesting and valid points in the discussion but space limitations prevent me from adding more to this text.

NOTES

* Due to the poor phone connection from Tajikistan, Kabiri’s audio is sometimes difficult to hear. What he said was important and we consider it important that the audience is aware of his full comments, therefore a text of what Kabiri said is below.

* The panel was conducted on February 26, so Kabiri was speaking before Tajik parliamentary elections were held.

Muhiddin Kabiri comments

3:46

«If I understood you right, why is it the opposition in Central Asia could not be so effective and I think that situation is the central issue, which is that the opposition cannot be effective. If the opposition would want to be more active, more effective, it would be very dangerous for at least the power regime. They consider the opposition as dangerous sources. In another case, if the opposition wants to be stronger it means that the opposition should move to the right or to become more radical. But to become more radical, to move further to the right, it means that the situation will become more dangerous in the region as a whole. That is why the opposition in Central Asia is trying to be moderate, to use the same rules, rules of game, and has failed. I feel that in our situation in Central Asia it’s not possible for opposition parties or groups to be stronger than they are now.»

Kabiri is asked why is it impossible for the Central Asia opposition to be active and play a prominent role?

3:55

«Because our area is different, surrounded by such countries as Russia, China and Afghanistan so the priority in our region is stability and fighting against terrorism and radicalism, not human rights or democracy. So I think the international community also understands [how] this situation is. I can say that now the priority for all of Central Asia is not democracy or human rights but stability.»

How is it possible for an Islamic party to exist?

12:33

«It’s very difficult now for our party to be the only Islamic party in the region. From one side we’re trying to keep our members and followers in favor of law from another side we have a lot of social and economic problems produced by migration and the situation in Afghanistan. All of these factors are making especially the young people more radical so our duty, the Islamic Party, is to keep this process under control and in the meantime defend ourselves from all of this propagandistic attack against us because the situation in the Middle East, in Syria, the situation with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria makes for us a lot of problems so our opponents use this situation against us and they want to show people [that] our party is part of the global Islamic movement, radical movement. So now the situation is more difficult for us especially in this period with parliamentary elections. You know on March 1 we have parliamentary elections so our duty as the only Islamic party in the region is on the one hand to improve democratic values, and on the other side to defend against this propaganda attack.»

Kabiri is asked how his party can absorb the likely loss in parliamentary elections and still remain a legitimate political force.

18:37

«You know, just two days before the elections, the question is very specific. Some people were hearing some comments that Tajikistan doesn’t need such kind of opposition in parliament especially Islamic opposition. Some people think that my country is in a different situation and our post-conflict era has finished so the activity of the Islamic party as the main opposition party, which was necessary in some years after the civil war somehow it’s not necessary [now] to have such kind of opposition. But I feel that if our party will be outside of parliament, which some people want, it will help radical groups especially extremist groups which are against any elections or parliamentary systems. So I think, I hope that our election will show to the people, to give them some positive or optimistic feelings that Tajikistan will be a democracy and [there will be] rule of law. But if the results of the elections are falsified, I think that pessimism will increase, it will be a more dangerous situation for the regime.

Kibiri is asked how many seats he thinks the IRP will win in the election.

20:52

«At least to have a faction in parliament, so at least five seats but now we have only two seats but when I meet the people I see we have strong supporters in our society.

http://www.rferl.org/content/political-space-for-central-asia-opposition/26879510.html

Tajikistan’s Islamic Renaissance Party On Life Support

By Farangis Najibullah

Tajikistan’s Islamic Renaissance Party (IRPT) has suffered a crushing election defeat, and it has only timing, autocratic rule, and itself to blame.

The IRPT garnered a mere 1.5 percent in Tajikistan’s March 1 vote, leaving the country’s second-largest party with no seats in parliament for the first time in 15 years.

As the party tries to pick up the pieces, pundits say its failure can be attributed to a number of factors.

Echoing widespread sentiment, Dushanbe-based political analyst Rashid Ghani says developments outside the country played a large role in the party’s setback.

«The general anti-Islamic mood and the extensive media coverage of the [Islamic State group] atrocities in Mosul [Iraq] and elsewhere have had a crucial impact on Tajik society’s opinion about an Islamic party,» Ghani said.

The analyst added that the «chaos in the Middle East that unfolded following the Arab Spring was linked to Islamic groups,» and helped shape negative opinions of Islamist politicians in Tajikistan.

Pressure and smear campaigns that the IRPT believes targeted both the party and its supporters also took a toll.

As part of what the IRPT calls a politically motivated campaign, several party members were arrested and local offices closed in the run-up to this week’s elections. At least three regional heads of the party were detained on March 2, the day after the poll.

A series of damaging sex tapes that appeared on the Internet last year purported to show religious figures with links to the IRPT — including a prominent female party member — taking part in sex acts.

The party has said the tapes are evidence of a smear campaign, but authorities have denied any involvement and have also said the arrests of party members are not related to politics.

Analyst Ghani places part of the blame for the defeat on the IRPT itself, saying it failed to develop initiatives that would attract voters in recent years.

The IRPT’s popularity soared in predominantly Muslim Tajikistan after it was officially registered under a 1997 power-sharing deal between the government and opposition. But the party struggled to carve out a niche for itself in a system in which the government maintains tight control over religious institutions.

In 2010, for example, the IRPT’s Dushanbe mosque was closed and its effort to overturn an official ban on women-only mosques fell through.

Despite the party’s recent difficulties, IRPT leader Muhiddin Kabiri maintains that the Renaissance Party can be revived, vowing to turn the «shock of the election defeat into an opportunity to start changes, reforms, and renovations.»

In a postelection speech on March 2, Kabiri also addressed a widely circulating rumor that a ban on the Islamic party is imminent.

Kabiri warned the authorities against making «hasty» decisions regarding the future of the Islamic party, and touted the benefits the IRPT can provide to Tajik society.

He said the party can help with serious threats posed by religious «extremists — the Islamic State group, Al-Qaeda and other groups that came into existence as a result of failed policies.»

Earlier, he suggested the party’s absence in the next parliament could damage the authorities’ image.

Analyst Ghani concurs, saying that the presence of a vocal opposition Islamic party in parliament made Tajikistan stand out «as a multiparty state» in a region known for autocratic regimes.

The election left only the ruling People’s Democratic Party along with pro-government groups  — the Agrarian Party, the Economic Reforms Party, and the Socialist Party — with seats in parliament.

The Communist Party — known for its occasional, albeit soft, criticism of the government — lost its two parliamentary seats. The Social Democrat Party, the only secular opposition force and vocal government critic, finished last in the election race.

RFE/RL’s Tajik Service contributed to this story

http://www.rferl.org/content/tajikistan-islamic-renaissance-party-on-the-ropes/26880001.html

Report Warns Of ‘Disturbing’ Decline In Global Freedom

leading democracy watchdog says global freedom suffered a «disturbing» decline in 2014, with Syria ranking as the world’s least free country and Russia’s «invasion» of Ukraine dealing a bad blow to democracy.

In an annual report, U.S.-based Freedom House found that an upsurge in terrorist attacks and increasingly aggressive tactics used by authoritarian regimes had contributed to «a growing disdain for democratic standards» in nearly all regions of the world in 2014.

«Acceptance of democracy as the world’s dominant form of government — and of an international system built on democratic ideals — is under greater threat than at any other point in the last 25 years,» said Arch Puddington, vice president for research at Freedom House.

The Freedom in the World 2015 report, published on January 28, assessed the level of freedom in 195 countries. Its subtitle is Discarding Democracy: Return to the Iron Fist.

Despite advances in countries such as Cuba and Tunisia, it said nearly twice as many countries suffered democratic declines as gains in 2014.

It pointed to terrorism as a leading factor, saying Islamist militants in many regions of the world «massacred security forces and civilians alike, took foreigners hostage, and killed or enslaved religious minorities, including Muslims they deemed apostates.»

Freedom House said terrorism had a «devastating» impact on countries including Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, and Nigeria.

In Iraq, the report said last year was marked by «the Islamic State’s attempts to destroy Christian, Shiite,Yazidi, and other communities under its control, as well as attacks on Sunnis by state-sponsored Shiite militias.»

In Iran, Freedom House said hardliners were preventing the passage of any potential reforms to increase civil liberties or decrease government interference in the lives of Iranians.

Afghanistan suffered «increased violence against journalists and civilians amid the withdrawal of international combat troops.» It also noted an increase in violence against women there.

The report said freedom also receded in a «troubling number» of large, economically powerful countries including Russia, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Mexico, or Turkey.

It cited what it called «Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including the outright seizure and formal annexation of Crimea,» as one of the worst democratic rollbacks of 2014.

Russia itself was ranked as «not free» due to deepening government crackdown on dissent, independent media, and nongovernmental organizations.

The report said that in Azerbaijan. there was an increase in cases of abuse and jailings of government critics, including human rights advocates and journalists.

The report voiced concerns over dwindling freedoms in Egypt, pressure on independent media and civil society in Turkey, and further centralization of authority in China.

Syria, described as «a dictatorship mired in civil war and ethnic division and facing uncontrolled terrorism,» received the lowest score of any country in more than a decade.

In Ukraine, the report found that the gains «related to the ouster of corrupt president Viktor Yanukovych» were offset by Russia’s annexation of Crimea and ongoing fighting between government forces and Russian-backed separatists in the country’s east.

Ukraine was rated as only «partly free.»

Crimea — under Russian control since March — was evaluated separately for the first time and received ratings «only slightly better» than those of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, two of the worst-ranked countries.

The other «worst of the worst» countries and territories were the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tibet, and Western Sahara.

The report singled out Kyrgyzstan as enjoying the highest levels of freedom in Central Asia despite «increased government restrictions on freedom of assembly and civil society groups.»

Kyrgyzstan, rated as «partly free,» was the only Central Asian country that didn’t receive a «not free» rating.

While Europe was found to have suffered limited democratic setbacks in 2014, the report highlighted the wave of protests sparked in the United States by the police killings of unarmed African Americans and denounced «the repeated failure of prosecutors to secure indictments of the officers responsible.»

It also cited the CIA’s reported «torture and mistreatment of terrorism suspects» in the wake of the 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States.

Of the 195 countries assessed in the report, 89 were rated «free,» 55 «partly free,» and 51 «not free.»

http://www.rferl.org/content/human-rights-freedom-house/26817217.html

How Russia Fights its Information War

The Kremlin is committing huge resources to extending its influence through spin rather than soldiers.

As the Ukraine crisis continues, IWPR editor Daniella Peled talks to writer and regional expert Peter Pomeranzev about how Russia is using the media as an extension of its military power.

Russia is devoting great resources to the information war – how effective is this proving within the country?

Russia has used information warfare to achieve its aims much more than any other authoritarian regime in history. If the previous format was 80 per cent violence and 20 per cent propaganda, this regime has reversed that into 80 per cent propaganda and 20 per cent violence. Stalin had to arrest 30,000 people to intimidate the population, whereas Putin can arrest one oligarch and spread as much terror.

It’s no coincidence that the first thing Putin did on taking power was to take over the media and the TV by going after [media oligarchs Vladimir] Gusinsky and [Boris] Berezovsky. Chechnya was a made-for-TV war, and turned Putin from a nobody into the figure he is today.

The regime uses television as its most important tool. First, it mixes entertainment with social control. For instance, there are very amusing debate shows which are broadly scripted by the Kremlin – the heads of the TV channels have weekly meetings there. So the control is very, very strong, but at the same time the effect is entertaining.

As in other authoritarian regimes, the media is used to promote non-stop conspiracy theories and to break down critical thinking in society. Television is used very aggressively, with a lot of NLP-style [neuro-linguistic programming] tactics, repeating key words like “the enemy”, for instance. This was used epically over the Ukraine crisis. I don’t think I have ever seen a country convince its citizens of such an alternative reality as Russia is now doing.

This isn’t straightforward deception, like saying a country has weapons of mass destruction when it doesn’t. This is a huge reality show with various emerging narratives.

The Kremlin has reinvented the conflict in Ukraine as a genocide against Russians. People believe that the fascists are coming to get them, because that’s what they have seen on TV, or that the CIA is behind massacres in Ukraine. After they said for ten years that Ukraine is “our brother nation”, now it has become Russia’s deepest enemy. From saying previously that Ukraine was actually part of Russia, the narrative now is that Ukrainians are fascists. And Russia has spread this story about Ukraine being a failed state. Ukraine is a lot of things – if anything it’s a crap state – but it isn’t a failed state.

None of this is meant to make sense. It is intended to confuse and to strike fear into the hearts of the population.

What kind of impact has the Kremlin’s media strategy had outside Russia?

There are 30 million Russians who live abroad, so Russian-language media has a much larger reach than just within the country’s borders. As far as foreign media is concerned, the approach is granular, with different tactics deployed in specific countries. It is very focused. There is a different approach in each case.

The approach to Britain plays on the anti-European Union, pro-business trend. Russia has been courting UKIP. There is no suggestion of any financial impropriety, but Russia Today invited Nigel Farage on as a guest before the BBC would have him, for instance. Anything anti-European can be built on – the idea of European expansionism, that the EU is an evil empire. This leads to the conclusion that Russia is just defending itself. This is the ideological bridge to Le Pen in France. They make an alliance with whoever they need to be friendly with at the time.

As for how effective it is, nobody is really sure, in the West or in Russia, whether it achieves very much. There has no sociological research on the effect of Russia Today, for instance. It claims to be the most-watched channel on YouTube, but in a way that is admitting that no one actually watches you. Russia Today is just really crude, and my sense is that in Britain at least, it works almost as a decoy, a distraction. The real problem is the financial players who are in thrall to the Russian economy. The City is Britain’s Achilles heel. Deep down, people wonder why should pesky Ukraine get in the way of us making money? And a lot of “experts” have received funding through Russian organisations. It’s quite subtle.

The Kremlin’s idea of soft power is absolutely different – it is an extension of military power. The Russian military has for the last 10 years been moving away from the idea of kinetic force to informational operations. We in the West think of it as something that accompanies military action – introducing MTV to Afghanistan, for instance – but the Russians see it as the main part of warfare, to demoralise, divide and conquer, to split society and create a permanent information war. They wage this war through NGOs, the church, business, the media – how to bring a country to its knees without ever invading, basically.

How much has the Russian government harnessed the power of social media?

Russia latched on very, very fast to the power of the web. The [opposition] protests in 2011 were very internet-driven, and Moscow realised very quickly that it was the ideal tool for authoritarian rule. They hired very dirty PR firms to start their own stories, and social media was awash with crazy stuff. Trolling is also a way of intimidation. It’s like suppressive fire – it bogs people down.

They are also trying to do that in the English language media. There was [Brazilian journalist] Pepe Escobar who wrote about MH17, and the mysterious Carlo who worked in air traffic control in Kiev and had a mysterious Twitter feed full of disinformation – that he saw a Ukrainian jet following the plane for instance. Then Carlo disappeared. It was all apparently suppressed by the Western media. This is a story which took an hour to fabricate, but it actually got traction.

Social media lets Moscow get material into the informational bloodstream, and technology makes it easier to spread disinformation.

Are independent voices managing to makes themselves heard within Russia?

Even dissenting voices have to be very carefully framed. There has been a clampdown on independent media in general. The Kremlin killed all the big internet news portals because they were creating the top line of the news agenda, and replaced independent editors with their own little slaves.

Even in supposedly more independent media, there is not necessarily obvious propaganda, but instead there are quite subtle messages. Their message is not necessarily that there are fascists in Ukraine – they leave that to the TV and the gutter press – but they relativise and smudge the discussion. The independent news channel TV-Rain, which has been pushed onto the internet, also operates with boundaries.

Everyone is waiting for Moscow to do something more extreme. Regarding bloggers, a law has been passed which means that if you have more than 3,000 daily readers, then you have to register with the mass media regulator, so this puts all kinds of restriction on you – a way to kill off blogging, basically. Facebook has to register with the regulator, too, and store data on its users within Russia. It’s about making life difficult without an outright ban. Then there are new laws about extremism which are so loosely worded than they could be used to shut down anyone, and people are waiting for a legal trick to be performed that does just that. Everyone is very worried.

Peter Pomeranzev is a regional expert and a senior fellow at the Legatum Institute. His latest book is Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible: The Surreal Heart of the New Russia.

https://iwpr.net/global-voices/how-russia-fights-its-information-war

Muslim Press Reacts To Charlie Hebdo Attack

By Joanna Paraszczuk

Media in the Muslim world have published a wide variety of reactions to the deadly attack on the offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in Paris.

In Iran, the morning papers offered very diverse coverage of the event. Although overall coverage was low-key compared to Western media, some newspapers covered the attack on their front pages.

It was noticeable that both conservative and reformist outlets criticized Charlie Hebdo for publishing cartoons mocking the Prophet Muhammad and questioned whether such cartoons constituted free speech.

The Iranian government’s official newspaper — named Iran, and which reflects Iranian President Hassan Rohani’s government policies — offered the most visible coverage, dedicating most of its front page to a large photo of the event, with the headline: Bloody Show Of Terrorists In Paris.

Although the more independent and reformist-leaning newspapers such as Sharq and Etemad also carried the story on their front page, the space dedicated to the news was much less than that of the daily Iran or of Hamshahri, the official newspaper of Tehran’s municipality.

Sharq’s headline on the event, which was run at the bottom of its front page, read: Shooting At The Heart Of Europe.

Sharq slammed the French satirical magazine for publishing Muhammad cartoons. «It is not acceptable that the president of France defends the freedom of speech in his speech after the attacks,» wrote Sharq. «This popular journal had published an insulting illustration of the Prophet of Islam.» The daily suggested that «revising relations with moderate Islamic countries such as Iran, which are pursuing confrontation with extremism [like that of] [the Islamic State group] under the name of Islam, can lead to mutual understanding and to the elimination of the atmosphere of violence.»

Reformist daily Etemad headlined with: Black Wednesday In Paris.

Meanwhile, some of the more conservative newspapers tried to put the blame on what they called France’s policies in the Middle East. Javan, said to be close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), said in an editorial titled Cartoon Of Islamophobia In France that «France is among the countries that have had the largest dispatch of terrorists to Syria…and one can guess how dangerous the return of these terrorists could be for Europe.»

The conservative daily Resalat said that the attack was a result of support for anti-Islamic media and other groups.

«Boosting the activities of extremist and anti-Islam groups and media (of which Charlie Hebdo was one) has led to the current security disaster in Europe,» the outlet argued in an editorial. Resalat went on to say that «France has experienced the bitter taste of supporting terrorism.»

The conservative newspaper Kayhan, which operates under the supervision of the office of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was relatively mute in its coverage.

In Iraq, the mainstream media paid very limited attention to the attack. Only three major Iraqi news outlets published news reports about the events, two of which were stories syndicated from major Western wire services. The third story, by Al-Sabah al-Jadid, carried statements condemning the attack by world leaders, including U.S. President Barack Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron. The newspaper also noted reactions from the Al-Azhar University in Cairo saying that Islam was against violence.

Paris-based Iraqi journalist Jawad Bishara told Radio Free Iraq’s Samira Ali Mendi on January 8 that the «Iraqi media have been largely indifferent because many more Iraqis are killed on a daily basis, and the outside world barely responds.»

While many Afghan media were on their weekend holiday, the Afghan Taliban took the opportunity to publish an article on its website on January 8 describing the killings as «an alarm bell for those who have in the past insulted Islam and the Prophet.»

The Taliban did not go so far as to openly support the attack. The article, written by one Ahmad Zarif, who is not an official spokesman for the Afghan Taliban, opined that, «Those who mocked the Prophet have strengthened their security.»

The front pages of major Pakistani newspapers initially focused on straight news coverage, before commentaries and editorials began emerging.

In an editorial published on January 9, the English-language daily Dawn noted: «Once again, Islam and Muslims are in the spotlight, and once again, it is for all the wrong reasons.

The newspaper described as «fitting» that Cairo’s influential Al-Azhar University had «called the attack ‘criminal’ and reiterated that Islam denounces ‘any violence,’ while the Arab League has also condemned the massacre.»

But Dawn added that «much more needs to be said and done, particularly given the deep divisions that are springing up between Muslims and non-Muslims in the West.»

The English-language Daily Times laid out various positions when it comes to the debate about free speech in the context of depictions of Islam and Muhammad.

«Muslims in particular need to revisit the Prophet’s (PBUH) response/example in the face of insult and provocation,» it concludes, «to understand that those who wield the language of weapons actually lack a convincing argument and those who choose to combat them with the weapon of language will win out in the end.»

The Turkish press has widely reported about the Paris massacre. In commentaries, too, the overall voice was one of condemnation, despair, and sorrow. But the tone and intensity varied to some extent.

The liberal daily HaberTurk’s prominent columnist Rusen Cakir asked: «How can we face this barbarism?» He then quoted a secular journalist as saying, «If, like five years ago, we had an AKP government of that time that the West would value and this government would oppose this kind of barbarism, there could be a way out of this. But such a situation does not seem to be the case now and that is why we are in a catastrophic situation.»

Religious-minded, pro-government newspapers were also critical of the Paris violence. Writing in the daily Milli Gazete, columnist Ali Bayramogly said, «The first thing to do is now to condemn it. But the main issue is to fight it and not let it derail to policies of relying purely on military solutions.»

Reactions to the shooting in the Arab world have been mixed, with some outlets condemning the attack and others suggesting that the French satirical magazine had brought the attack on itself. Other outlets blamed the West and «colonial policies» for the phenomenon of terrorism. Another common theme was whether the IS militant group was to blame for the attack.

The pan-Arabic newspaper Al-Hayat sharply condemned the Paris attack.Its headline declared that Terrorists Hit The Heart Of Paris in Cold Blood.

Another major pan-Arabic outlet, Asharq Alawsat, emphasized that Saudi Arabia, the Arab League, and Egypt’s Al Azhar University were «at the forefront of international condemnation of the targeting of Charlie Hebdo.»Asharq Alawsat noted that Riyadh issued a condemnation of the attack via Saudi Arabia’s official press agency.

Egypt’s Shorouk News cast the blame for the attack on Charlie Hebdo itself.The paper’s headline read that the French satirical magazine had a History Of Insulting The Prophet, Ending In Fire.

Egyptian outlet Al Masry Al Youm reported comments by popular TV presenter Tamer Amin, who said that while some media reports have suggested that the IS group was behind the Paris shooting, «in my opinion, it was not IS that carried out this operation, but [IS] found an opportunity to say that it did in order to get a certain prestige.» Amin said IS wanted to take advantage of the attack on Charlie Hebdo because the magazine had published caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad, so the attack would encourage some to say that IS had triumphed for Islam.

Egypt’s Masr Alarabiya outlet pointed the finger of blame at IS, headlining with: IS Fulfills Its Threat And Attacks France. The headline is a reference to the November 2014 video released by the IS group that showed a group of French IS militants calling for French Muslims to carry out attacks on French soil.

In an editorial rich with flowery metaphors and titled He Who Cooks Poison Will Eat It Himself!, the Oman daily Al Watan exclaimed: «How painful it is that the world continues to drown in a sea of its own blood.» The paper did not refer directly to the Charlie Hebdo attack but hinted at both it and the Islamic State group by blaming colonialism for violence and saying that «terrorism is not controlled by its master, but its loyalty is to the highest bidder.»

In Central Asia there has been widespread coverage of the attacks, but media reactions mostly reflected the official responses condemning the tragedy and saying that terrorism is a global problem.

In Kazakhstan, several media outlets reported that around 30 Kazakh journalists had laid flowers outside the French Consulate in Almaty to honor the victims of the Paris attack. «It seems to me that this is a normal reaction from journalists — to support colleagues,» the organizer of the flower-laying, Marzhan Elshibaeva, told the Tengrinews portal.

Kazakh media also reported widely on the official reaction of President Nursultan Nazarbaev to the Paris attack. In a telegram to his French counterpart Francois Hollande, Nazarbaev said that «the ubiquity of terrorism has become a threat for all nations,» the BNews portal reported. 

Beyond the official reactions, the Russian-language centrasia.ru regional aggregator website featured an open discussion of the Charlie Hebdo shootings that included a wide variety of opinions from commenters. Some accused Europe of hypocrisy for promoting free speech and allowing migration, and then cracking down on migrants. «This is a satanic manipulation,» one commenter wrote. «The same centers that support this binge of free speech and which use slogans of tolerance and a war on xenophobia are importing millions of other faiths into Europe and now they are are starting to whip them — maybe they replied to that!»

Kazakhstan’s New Times outlet linked the attack in Paris to the threat of blowback from Kazakh nationals fighting in Syria and Iraq. «The attack on Charlie Hebdo is a reason to think seriously and take measures to prevent terrorism and radicalism in Kazakhstan,» the outlet wrote. New Times cited analyst Aydos Sarym as suggesting that the attackers in France «had managed to fight in Syria and had special training.» Sarym noted that «there are more than 300 Kazakhs» fighting in Syria, saying that «our troubles are not fictitious or imaginary.»

The Russian-language IslamNews.ru portal, which publishes news relating to Russian Muslims and the Muslim world, featured an opinion piece it solicited from Leonid Ivashov, the Kyrgyzstan-born vice president of the Academy on Geopolitical Affairs. Ivashov blamed the United States for the attack, saying that the Charlie Hebdo shootings were «most likely planned in the United States to destroy Islamic culture, Islamic tradition, and to pit Europeans against Islam.» Ivashov said that the world is witnessing a «clash of civilizations» and that the Muhammad cartoons published by Charlie Hebdo were an excuse to incite fanatics.

In Azerbaijan, pro-government outlets featured Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s official letter of condolence to his French counterpart, Francois Hollande. Aliyev said that Azerbaijan was «deeply outraged by this horrific event and strongly support a resolute struggle against all forms of terrorism.»

Azerbaijan’s APA news agency also noted that a book of condolences had been opened at the French Consulate in Azerbaijan and invited readers to visit and express their condolences.

Other pro-government outlets, such as the Trend.az portal, reported the reaction of Azerbaijan’s ruling party, Yeni Azerbaijan, which condemned the Paris shooting attacks.

With contributions from Michael Scollon, Abbas Djavadi, and Niusha Boghrati

http://www.rferl.org/content/muslim-press-reacts-charlie-hebdo-attack/26783014.html

Charlie Hebdo: The Publication That Mocks Everyone

By Rikard Jozwiak

January 07, 2015

The French satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo, targeted in a January 7 gun attack in Paris that left 12 people dead, has a long and storied history of poking cruel fun at the great, the good, and the ugly.

French leaders, Muslims, Jews, the pope — all have been the target over the years of the weekly’s crude — and to some, offensive — satire.

Here are just a few examples.

Charles De Gaulle

In 1970 the magazine’s predecessor, Hara-Kiri, was banned by the French Interior Ministry for mocking the death of former French President Charles De Gaulle. The president died in his home village Colombey-les-Deux-Eglises eight days after a fire in a night club in southeastern France killed 146 people. The magazine released a cover mimicking the press coverage of the disaster with the headline «Tragic Ball at Colombey, one dead.» The magazine got around the ban by setting up under a new name, Charlie Hebdo.

Muhammad Cartoons

In 2006, the magazine decided to reprint the 12 Muhammad cartoons initially published in the Danish daily Jyllands-posten that caused worldwide controversy. Charlie Hebdo also made its own Muhammad cartoon on the front page. Under the title Muhammad Overwhelmed By Fundamentalists, it shows the Prophet crying, saying, «it’s hard being loved by jerks.»

Shari’a Hebdo

In 2011 the magazine’s office was fire-bombed and its website hacked. The attacks came after the magazine decided to rename a special edition Charia [Shari’a] Hebdo with the Prophet Muhammad listed as editor in chief. The cover depicted the Prophet saying, «100 lashes of the whip if you don’t die laughing.»

More Muhammad Cartoons

Its most controversial issue came in September 2012, when the magazine published a series of satirical cartoons of Muhammad, with the most graphic one being a nude image of him with a star in his rear saying «A star is born.»

The publication came a few days after attacks on U.S. embassies in the Middle East during protests against a low-budget, anti-Islamic film, the Innocence of Muslims, that was made in the United States. The publication prompted France to close embassies, consulates, and schools in about 20 Muslim countries.

Catholics, Jews

The magazine has for a long time targeted religions other than Islam, too. Itmocked the previous pope, Benedict XVI, after his abdication in 2013, alluding that he was a closet homosexual.

And it has also mocked Jews, like in this cover*, where a Jew, the pope, and a Muslim cry simultaneously, «We need to veil Charlie Hebdo!»

Current-Day Politicians Have Been Fair Game, Too

Current-day politicians, especially French presidents, have also been targeted on numerous occasions. The current president, Francois Hollande, was in 2014 depicted in bed with his former partner, Valerie Trierweiler, right after the news broke about his infidelity. The comment from «Trierweiler» — «No growth anywhere» — lampoons both Hollande’s virility and the flaccid French economy during his tenure.

http://www.rferl.org/content/charlie-hebdo-publication-mocked-everyone/26781507.html

We Speak English: Tajik TV Stops Dubbing Hollywood Films

By Zarangez Navruzshoh

December 07, 2014

Mehrangez is a university student in Dushanbe who says she has few opportunities to talk with native English speakers. So she didn’t expect to understand much when she watched «The Great Gatsby» recently on Tajik television.

And she was right. Now that state broadcasters no longer voiceover or dub many of the English-language movies they show, Mehrangez had a difficult time following the dialogue.

«I only understood two words,» she says. «They were ‘hello’ and ‘madame.'»

Still, she watched the film to the end, convinced that one day she will be able to understand English-only movies as easily as she and most other Tajiks understand Russian-language movies today.

«I already have watched many American films [on Tajik TV], and the one which I think is the best of all is ‘The Great Gatsby,’ the new film,» she says. «I think [watching] English films, American films can improve our English.»

Tajik state television began airing English-language films in their original versions just a few months ago. But with three channels now showing Hollywood and Bollywood films without any translation help on Sundays and Thursdays, the films are already carving out a space for English in Tajik life that it has never occupied before.

Komro Safarov, the deputy head of the country’s First Channel, says the new initiative is based on the idea that young Tajiks of earlier generations learned Russian precisely because films in that language were not translated when they were broadcast across the Soviet Union.

Now, as the number of people in the country who want to learn English increases, giving them the opportunity to hear English the same way should greatly accelerate their progress, Safarov says.

«It is through watching and hearing people speak that one accelerates the learning process for a foreign language,» he says.

Two other state channels — «Safina» and «Bahoristan» — are also now showing English-only films two days a week.

Parvon Jamshed, the chairman of Tajikistan’s Association of Teachers, says only 5 percent of the population speaks English today.

Still, interest among many young people is high. This year 1,000 Tajik secondary school students applied through the U.S. Congress-sponsored Future Leaders Exchange (FLEX) program to study for one year at a high school in the United States. One hundred of the applicants were accepted.

The interest in English in Tajikistan has already created a boom in English-language courses in state schools and in private training centers. But Jamshed says that what has been missing until now is any integration of English into the Central Asian country’s public life.

«Currently, there are a lot of language centers and most institutions of higher education include study of the English language,» he notes. «But because few people ever communicate in English, the only way for them to develop their fluency is viewing movies.»

Ironically, most foreign movies shown on Tajik television today are dubbed or voiced over into Russian, because they come to Tajikistan via the Russian market. The translation causes no concerns because Russian has been the country’s second language for more than a century and remains widely understood.

However, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon has said that every citizen of the country should know both English and Russian, as well as their mother tongue.

The initiative to begin broadcasting English-only films came direct from the presidential office, Safarov says.

The heads of state television have announced that they will increase the broadcasting hours for original-version movies in both English and Russian in the future, though they have yet to provide further details.

http://www.rferl.org/content/tajikistan-film-industry-dubbing-english/26730066.html