Channeling the spirit of Joseph Stalin, officials in Tajikistan, Central Asia’s poorest state, have asked residents in the capital Dushanbe to give up part of their salaries «voluntarily» to help finance construction of a hydropower plant. The fear of government reprisals is compelling many Tajiks to comply.

Makhmadsaid Ubaidullayev, the speaker of the upper chamber of Tajikistan’s parliament, as well as mayor of Dushanbe, first broached the idea of public contributions on April 29. He indicated that if every working individual in Dushanbe donated half of his/her salary for May and June, the state could raise roughly $10 million. Confident of a positive response, Ubaidullayev immediately instructed government agencies and state enterprises to withhold 50 percent of the salaries normally due employees.

For many working outside the public sector, Ubaidullayev’s request seemed absurd, given that government mismanagement is a major factor in the country’s current socio-economic crisis. Still, few people are willing to risk non-compliance. Government institutions are believed to be keeping track of who contributes and who doesn’t. Thus, many believe that those not obeying Ubaidullayev’s informal directive, especially if they operate small- or medium-sized businesses, will pay a far higher price in the very near future, via audits by the tax inspectorate or other legal difficulties.

Local observers say the move is certain to fuel anger and a sense of hopelessness among a large portion of Tajikistan’s population, which endured the misery associated with a severe lack of heating and power during last winter’s deep freeze.

Officials suggest that the money, raised by what amounts to an arbitrary and confiscatory tax, will be used to help finance the Rogun hydroelectric power plant, a long-stalled project that could shore up Tajikistan energy security.

Experts, however, say that the $10 million projected to be raised from the coerced assessment is monetarily insignificant given that, according to some estimates, it will take $1.5 billion to finish the Rogun project. Government officials, meanwhile, put the cost of completion at $550 million. Regardless of the construction costs, the government’s action is unjustifiable when considering that it stands to cause severe hardships for tens, if not hundreds of thousands of Tajiks.

A recent admission made by Shukurjon Zukhurov, the minister of labor and social protection, helps to illustrate the pain inflicted on the population. Zukhurov admitted that more than a half of Tajikistani live below the poverty line. The minimal monthly salary in Tajikistan is 20 somoni (less than $6), and the average salary at the beginning of 2008 was 213 somoni (about $60). Even in normal times, many Dushanbe residents would be hard-pressed to cover gaps created by what is effectively the theft of a month’s salary. But these are not normal times for Tajikistan.

The country is still reeling from the hardships created by the winter weather. On top of that, government malfeasance seems to have created a debt time-bomb. Over the past three years, the country’s external debt has almost doubled, climbing to $1.2 billion from about $683 million in 2005. How President Imomali Rahmon’s administration will be able to meet its debt obligations remains a mystery, as the government’s annual budget amounts to an estimated $700 million.

From the popular perspective, the situation is already dire. The country is suffering from runaway inflation, driven mainly by the rapid rise in prices for basic foodstuffs. According to data compiled by the State Statistics Committee, the cost of basic food products rose by about 20 percent in 2007. Unofficial data suggests that rising prices made a much steeper ascent, with the cost of some items rising by as much as 500 percent. Tajikistan’s overall inflation rate in 2007 was pegged at 19.7 percent.

The combination of poverty and inflation are threatening to create a social catastrophe. According to a recent statement issued by the UN World Food Program, 550,000 Tajiks are suffering from malnutrition, and roughly 260,000 are in need of «emergency assistance.» The UN agency said about two-thirds of Tajiks were living in poverty.

Rather than take action that could alleviate the food crisis, the government literally seems preoccupied with cosmetic issues. On April 29, the same day Ubaidullayev was announcing the dam tax, President Rahmon issued a ban on tinting car windows.

Public anger might not be so great over making «voluntary» contributions to state coffers, if citizens believed the money would be devoted to the intended purpose. But many believe their hard-earned somonis will simply disappear into the country’s vast sinkhole of official corruption.

Several important pieces of evidence of corrupt practices have come to light in recent months. Perhaps the most notorious instance concerns the International Monetary Fund’s demand, made in March, that the Tajik government repay $47 million in loans. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. On April 30, Tajik officials were compelled to agree to a joint monitoring program to monitor the future activities of the National Bank of Tajikistan, which had been accused by the IMF of fraudulent practices in connection with the loans.
Many Tajiks have also been shocked to learn that Rahmon’s administration has paid over $120 million in legal fees over the past three years to a British law firm in connection with an embezzlement case involving the Tajik Aluminum Plant. According to papers filed with a London court, the British firm continues to bill the Tajik government $11 million every month.

Given the depths of government venality, some observers note with irony that southern Tajikistan in recent weeks has been best by a plague of locusts. Over 76,000 hectares of arable land has been consumed by the pests so far. In all, about 200,000 hectares of cotton and wheat fields are under threat, according to the Asia-Plus news agency.

Konstantin Parshin

Источник: EurasiaNet http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav050708.shtml

Tajik authorities have taken the independent Imruz (Today) radio station off the air, citing «technical problems.»

Since it began broadcasting last summer, Imruz had become the most popular FM station in the Tajik capital, Dushanbe, and the surrounding area. Among the locals, Imruz was known as a «serious radio station.» It broadcast news and reports focusing on Tajikistan’s political and social sphere, as well as music.

The radio’s bosses and editors have been reluctant to talk to the media since the decision was made on April 8. «The motives are still unclear,» says Rustami Joni, the head of radio Imruz. «I don’t think the decision [to stop the radio] has anything to do with the Tajik government.»

Joni added that a few days before the radio’s closure «officials» were checking the content of the radio station’s reports from early April, but he stopped short of saying who «the officials» were.

Unlike many other local radio stations, Imruz did not avoid criticizing the country’s political scene. All politicians, including opposition leaders and critics of the government, have had access to the station. One of its recent guests was Rahmatullo Zoirov, the leader of the opposition Social Democratic Party and an outspoken critic of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon.

Fearing pressure and reprisals, most local media outlets in Tajikistan try to avoid direct criticism of the government and top officials, and decide to self-censor their work.

A few days before being shut down, Imruz reported on a planned public protest in the eastern city of Khorog, saying that the local people were increasingly dissatisfied with their low and often unpaid wages, as well as with the growing food prices.

The same day, the radio station aired a commentary on the country’s high unemployment — one of the biggest problems in Tajikistan — and the plight of Tajik migrant laborers in Russia. The commentary made a gloomy prediction, saying that in the next few years half of Tajikistan’s population will become seasonal workers in Russia. The radio station also covered Tajikistan’s admission that it lied to the International Monetary Fund, which has demanded the return of $46 million in loans.

Independent journalist Rajabi Mirzo says that so far only Russian-language media in Tajikistan would dare to take such a critical tone. «Tajik-language media have much more influence and impact in Tajikistan and therefore they could become more dangerous [for the government],» Mirzo says. «Radio Imruz was the first local FM station to broadcast its programs entirely in the Tajik language. It focused on subjects that so far have only been covered by Russian-language radios. So it wasn’t acceptable for many people [in the government].»

Criticizing Rahmon’s government is a rare occurrence among Tajik media. Those who have dared to do so have been penalized. Almost all independent publications that have been critical of the government or the president, including the dailies «Ruzi nav,» «Odamu olam,» and «Nirui sukhan» have been shut down in recent years. Even the BBC was removed from the FM band more than two years ago.

Many Tajiks say the authorities should focus on solving the country’s social and economic problems instead of shutting down media outlets that criticize the current situation.

It remains unclear when Imruz will get permission to broadcast again. Some people predict it will come back on the air, but that it will be much more cautious after getting what amounts to a rebuke from the government.

It is not the first time that Imruz has been taken off the air. It was shut down in February but was back on the air less than three days later.

Imruz’s listeners have one more reason to hope that their favorite FM station will return to the airways soon. The radio indirectly belongs to the Tajik president’s influential and wealthy brother-in-law, Hasan Sadulloev. Sadulloev is the head of Orien Bank, one of the biggest in the country, which owns Imruz as a part of its so-called media-holding group.

The closure of Imruz shows that even some of the closest people to President Rahmon must exercise caution when it comes to criticizing his government’s policies or problems in the country.

(Farangis Najibullah is an RFE/RL correspondent based in Prague. RFE/RL’s Tajik Service contributed to this report.)

Farangis Najibullah is an RFE/RL correspondent bas

Источник: RFE/RL

The US Department of State has launched a report on human rights in Tajikistan in 2007, which, in particular, says the following: “The law provides for freedom of speech and of the press; however, in practice the government restricted these rights”.

The law provides for freedom of speech and of the press; however, in practice the government restricted these rights.

On occasion authorities subjected individuals who disagreed with government policies to intimidation and discouraged from speaking freely or critically. Government interference was particularly acute surrounding the November 2006 presidential election. Under the law a person can be imprisoned for up to five years for insulting the president.

All newspapers and magazines whose circulations exceed 99 are subject to registration with the Ministry of Culture. There were 272 registered newspapers, none of which were dailies (major newspapers came out once per week). There were also 72 registered magazines and seven news agencies. In June the government ordered all print media to re-register.

The independent media were active but, as in previous years, the government subjected the media to different means of control and intimidation; media outlets regularly practiced self-censorship out of fear of government reprisal. During the registration process, for example, the editors or owners of publishing houses agreed not to publish religious materials without the permission of the Ministries of Education and Culture.

During the year, the opposition Democratic Party of Tajikistan did not publish any editions of its newspaper, Adolat. Nerui Sukhan, an independent newspaper that had criticized government policy, did not resume publishing after its editor, Mukhtor Boqizoda, encountered numerous legal problems.

Government authorities occasionally subjected individual journalists to harassment and intimidation. Journalists reported that government officials limited their access to information or provided advice on what news should not be covered. There were no reported instances of violence against journalists by unidentified persons.

Other common types of harassment included trials to intimidate journalists, warnings made by telephone and in person at a prosecutor’s office or during visits to editorial offices, selective tax inspections, and close scrutiny of independent publications, such as by counting the number of copies printed compared to the declared circulation. Although this practice was mainly related to tax issues, it was also used for political harassment.

In July a prosecutor instituted criminal defamation charges against three journalists from Ovoza, a weekly newspaper, for publishing an article criticizing a pop singer’s conduct at a concert in Afghanistan and reprinting material written about her on the Internet. In October representatives from the Prosecutor General’s office summoned Marat Mamadshoev, Editor-in-Chief of Asia Plus, and asked him to explain why he had published an article quoting a Deutsche Welle radio program that had been critical of government policy.

The government controlled most printing presses, the supply of newsprint, and broadcasting transmission facilities. In 2005 the government closed the private printing house Kayhon, the publisher of independent newspaper Nerui Sukhan. State and private printing houses refused newsprint to independent newspapers.

Broadcasting entities must obtain a production license from the State Committee on Television and Radio and a broadcast license from the Ministry of Transport and Communications. The government, however, restricted issuance of these licenses. The government continued to review licensing regulations with public debate and input by journalists, but the process was lengthy, and there were no significant changes.

There are three national government-run television channels and two government-run radio stations, all of which are available throughout the country. There are also three regional government-run television channels. Several independent TV channels and radio stations are available in a very small portion of the country.

During the year, independent radio and television stations continued to experience administrative harassment and bureaucratic delays. Of the private television stations, only a few were genuinely independent, and not all of them operated without official interference. The government granted production and broadcast licenses to one new independent TV station and two new radio stations.

The government allowed some international media to operate freely, including rebroadcasts of Russian television and radio programs. However, the government continued to deny BBC a renewal of its license to broadcast on FM radio; it remained operational only on a middle frequency wavelength with limited broadcasting ability.

The international NGO Internews continued to experience registration and licensing problems that prevented the launch of six new community radio stations under its sponsorship.

From April to July 2006 the government temporarily suspended the Union of Journalists, but it resumed its activity upon the appointment of a new chairman. The union is perceived as being largely government influenced.
In July 2006 three leading media associations formed a coalition, Partnership for Democracy, to address misunderstandings among journalistic bodies and foster improved relations between mass media and the government.

Opposition politicians had very limited access to state-run television. The government allowed opposition leaders limited airtime during the presidential election campaign in October and November 2006.
Internet Freedom

On August 23, the president signed amendments to the Criminal Code that criminalize libel and defamation on the Internet, punishable by up to two years in prison. At year’s end the government had not prosecuted anyone under these amendments.

One Internet site remained blocked as a result of the September 2006 government order to block access to Web sites that «undermined the state’s policies.»

US Department of State

Источник: US Department of State

Burdened with an excessive foreign debt and facing a severe humanitarian crisis, the government of Tajikistan now finds itself disgraced in the eyes of the international community. One of the Central Asian nation’s leading creditors, the International Monetary Fund, is demanding repayment of over $47 million in loans after determining Dushanbe cooked its books in order to makes itself seem more creditworthy.

The IMF Executive Board, meeting earlier in March, determined that the Tajik National Bank had supplied the international lender with «inaccurate information» about the country’s cotton sector, Tajikistan’s primary export earner, as well as top employer. The bank also doctored data concerning the size of international reserves, its net domestic assets and its credit policy. The deception pre-dated the onset of Tajikistan’s current crisis, in which severe winter weather has caused alarming shortages of heat and electricity.

«The Board agreed that the Republic of Tajikistan shall be expected to repay the Fund the three non-complying disbursements that were not discharged under Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) relief,» the IMF said in a statement issued March 6. In all, Tajikistan will have to give back $47.4 million.
At the time IMF approved the loans, the Tajik Nation Bank reportedly led top fund officials to believe that the bank’s reserves stood at $450 million, when, in fact, they were roughly one-third of that amount. In addition, the National Bank also concealed the fact that the reserves had been pledged as collateral in order to obtain commercial-bank loans to prop up the cotton sector.

In most such cases of fraudulent behavior, the IMF usually demands repayment within 30 days. But given Tajikistan’s status as Central Asia’s poorest nation, and taking into account the humanitarian crisis, the fund said Dushanbe could repay the money in six monthly installments starting on September 5, 2008.
In its own statement, the Tajik National Bank pledged to meet the IMF’s repayment timetable. Bank officials gave no indication of where they would find the necessary funds to meet the repayment timetable. The state is already caught in a vicious cycle of deficit spending. In 2007, the government is estimated to have generated about $614 million in revenue, while spending over $756 million.
The fiscal picture is likely only to grow worse in the coming months. Given the IMF’s findings, other key creditors, such as the Asian Development Bank, are intending to conduct audits. This raises the possibility that President Imomali Rahmon’s government will have to repay other loans.
Tajik political analyst Saymuddin Dustov said he believed that the Tajik government would likely try to squeeze more taxes out of an already hard-pressed population, in order to cover the new IMF obligation.

While some political analysts and economists in Dushanbe, including Dustov, confessed to feeling ashamed by recent developments, others expressed outrage. One such expert, economist Hajimuhammad Umarov, questioned the timing of the IMF announcement, suggesting that Tajikistan was somehow being punished unfairly.
In Moscow, some analysts believe that the IMF’s action was dictated not by financial considerations, but by geopolitics. «It is absolutely probable that the recent IMF statement is merely a means of pressure on Tajikistan in order to turn [the country’s] loyalty toward Washington, rather than Moscow,» Mikhail Delyagin, the director of Russia’s Globalization Institute, was quoted as saying by the Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily.
Defenders of the bank say that the scope of the Tajik government’s dishonesty was simply too great to ignore.
In bringing the deception to light, the IMF painted an alarming picture of Tajikistan’s cotton sector. According to some reports, the country already owes foreign commercial banks roughly $330 million, and each year, the sector needs a fresh injection of about $80 million just to stave off collapse. Overall, the country’s foreign debt is currently estimated at $1.3 billion.
IMF officials first started to grow suspicious in late 2007 that they had been fed faulty information. The IMF’s worst fears were confirmed in December and January, after Tajik officials responded to requests for additional data.
The IMF scandal is unfolding as the country’s humanitarian crisis enters a new phase. As temperatures rise with the onset of spring, the power shortages that plagued the country during the winter are easing. But now concern is growing about the food supply. The harsh weather inflicted a severe agricultural toll, although the extent of the damage has not yet been fully estimated. In the Gorno-Badakhshan region, for example, local officials say the winter wheat crop was effectively wiped out by the harsh weather.
Already, an alarming spike in inflation is being reported in some regions in the country. In Gorno-Badakhshan, the price of vegetable oil has doubled in the past year, while the cost of flour has risen 60 percent over the same period. In addition, powdered milk has experienced a 50 percent price jump, the Asia-Plus news agency reported.

Kambiz Arman

Источник: http://www.eurasianet.org

The OSCE Center in Dushanbe will provide several Tajik newspapers with special funds to support their self-development. Since the early 1990-s, newspapers in Tajikistan are published only once a week; most of them print not more than 3-5 thousand copies a week.

“This measure is designed to increase printouts and expand circulation of Tajik newspapers, — says Michael Unland, representative of the OSCE Center in Dushanbe. — We cannot compare Tajikistan with Western countries in terms of the number of newspapers per capita and the quality of printing. However, the Kyrgyz daily “Vecherny Bishkek” releases 120 thousand copies a week, whereas the total number of Tajik newspapers is hardly a half of this amount”. It is logical that advertisers are not interested in small newspapers with limited circulation.

According to the recent OSCE study conducted in Tajikistan, about 30 percent of all expenditures related to printing are costs of polygraphic materials and paper. The average price of paper for printing in Tajikistan is $1,000 per ton. Saimiddin Dustov, chairman of the NGO “Informatics for Democracy and National Progress” considers that Tajik publishers should use the OSCE grant funds at their own discretion, i.e. those who are close to the “threshold of sustainability and profitability” could use the money to increase salaries of their staff.

Those applying for grants to OSCE must develop and present clear and comprehensive business plans reflecting forthcoming changes in the quality of their outlets. The editing board must show the way towards financial sustainability, the stable increase in the number of copies, the expansion of circulation, and the decrease in production costs.

Nuriddin Karshibayev, chairman of the Tajik National Association of Independent Media (NANSMIT) considers that editors should pay special attention to the contents of newspapers, i.e. publications must be topical; authors should touch upon the most relevant social, economic and political issues. “One-time grant infusions from international donors would hardly change the situation in the media, — says Karshibayev. — Editors and publishers should think of their commercial sustainability, which largely depends on their own efforts”.

Independent journalist Rajabi Mirzo thinks that the media needs support from the government. However, the authorities somehow are not interested in the development of the media market in the country. The energy crisis last winter has revealed reluctance of the government to help the printing media. The State-owned printing house Sharki Ozod is the facility for most of the Tajik newspapers. During the crisis, this printing house was supplied with electricity only 5 hours a day.

“Regrettably, the energy crisis will continue in Tajikistan, — says Rajabi Mirzo. — Most of the population cannot watch TV programs, and newspapers remain the main source of information. The Tajik State television receives both electricity and funds from the national budget, whereas the main printing facility – also fully controlled by the government – is lacking electricity…” – says Rajabi Mirzo.

Based on a piece by Nigora Bukharizade, Deutsche W

Источник: http://www.ariana.su/

IMF Executive Board Reviews Noncomplying Disbursements to Republic of Tajikistan and Breach of Obligations Under Article VIII, Section 5

Press Release No. 08/43
March 5, 2008

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) met today to review a report from the Managing Director on noncomplying disbursements to the Republic of Tajikistan and a breach of obligations under Article VIII, Section 5 of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement.
The Executive Board reviewed matters related to five noncomplying disbursements to the Republic of Tajikistan, each in an amount equivalent to SDR 9.8 million (about US$15.8 million), that were made in January 2004, August 2004, March 2005, July 2005, and February 2006 following the completion by the Executive Board of the second, third, fourth, fifth, and sixth review under the three-year Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) arrangement. The PRGF arrangement was approved by the Executive Board on December 11, 2002 (see Press Release No. 02/54).
Based on new information provided by the authorities to IMF staff in December 2007 and January 2008, the Executive Board concurs that these disbursements were made on the basis of inaccurate information provided by the Tajik authorities relating to the performance criteria on the net international reserves of the Republic of Tajikistan, the net domestic assets of the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT), and against the NBT issuing directed credits. The Board agreed that the Republic of Tajikistan shall be expected to repay the Fund the three noncomplying disbursements (related to the fourth, fifth, and sixth review) that were not discharged under Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) relief, which amount to a total of SDR29.4 million (about US$47.4 million), together with any interest accrued, in six equal monthly installments starting with the first installment no later than September 5, 2008, and concluding with the sixth and final installment no later than February 5, 2009. The Board expressed its regret on the nature and extent of misreporting, and emphasized the seriousness it attaches to the fact that MDRI resources extended to Tajikistan cannot be made subject to repayment.
In taking its decision, the Executive Board carefully weighed the Republic of Tajikistan’s very difficult economic circumstances , in particular its balance of payments position as well as the severe humanitarian crisis prevailing in the country, against serious instances of misreporting by the Tajik authorities. Accordingly, the Executive Board decided to make use of its discretion to extend the repayment period beyond the normal 30-day repayment expectation period called for under the misreporting framework.
Moreover, the Executive Board reviewed matters related to misreporting under Article VIII, Section 5, of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement by the Republic of Tajikistan. It found that the Republic of Tajikistan had breached its obligations under Article VIII, Section 5, of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, which obliges member countries to furnish such information as the Fund deems necessary for its activities.
The Tajik authorities have agreed to undertake a special audit of the NBT, to be carried out by a recognized international firm. The audit will aim to establish a reliable foundation for the future provision of monetary data and data on external debt, and to define steps to ensure transparency of all financial operations of the NBT. The Executive Board urged the authorities to publish the results of the audit when it has been completed.
In view of the corrective actions taken and the ongoing efforts of the authorities to improve the governance structure of the NBT, and implement measures to improve and strengthen the monitoring and reporting of data provided to the Fund, the Executive Board decided not to require any further remedial action in connection with the breach of obligations under Article VIII, Section 5 of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement. At the same time, the Board agreed to monitor closely the reporting of data to the Fund going forward.

IMF

Источник: IMF

On 18 February, the UN Office in Dushanbe launched a Flash Appeal titled “Tajikistan: Compound Crises”. The appeal prepared on behalf of the Tajik Government is addressed to international donor agencies in order to meet urgent humanitarian needs arising from the most severe winter in the last three decades, and to avoid further life-threatening situations in the country.

Michael Jones, UN Resident Coordinator in Tajikistan told journalists at a press conference in Dushanbe that “the Flash Appeal aims to enable humanitarian agencies to assure adequate food, water, fuel and electrical power for heat, essential healthcare services and other basic commodities over this critical period”. Seven UN agencies and five international NGOs (implementers of the disaster response activities) accredited in Tajikistan need to mobilize $25,1 million in order to mitigate the ongoing hardship and prevent further food and health crises. The appeal says that “at least 260 thousand people are in need of immediate food assistance. Moreover, the government reports that up to 2 million people may require food assistance through the end of the winter if limited food and fuel supplies in rural areas are not replenished”.

Gulomjon Bobozoda, head of the Tajik Ministry of Economic Development and Trade said at the same press conference that “…we should expect a “cumulative effect”, i.e. a long-term impact on all sectors of Tajikistan’s economy caused by the harsh winter, extremely low temperatures, outages of electricity, etc.” Bobozoda added that for the time being, it is difficult to estimate losses precisely; joint efforts of the government and international agencies are needed to measure the extent of the disaster in order to mobilize funds and take adequate measures.

According to a recent official statement by the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT), the economic loss from the cold weather in January and February has amounted to $250 million. NBT says that the recent frosts have destroyed vineries, gardens, cotton and potato fields. Kitchen gardens of private households in rural areas are also affected, but nobody can make any estimates of future losses – it will become obvious in spring.

Similar concerns have been voiced by other UN entities in Dushanbe – the World Food Program (WFP) and the World Health Organization (WHO). “People are spending more on food, but they eat less; many of them eat once a day”; and “Livestock has been severely affected; production of milk and eggs has dropped by 30-50%”; “many fruit gardens are destroyed”, — said the WFP and WHO experts.

Michael Jones also stressed a big probability of “future calamities” – meaning lack of clean water, especially in rural areas, and – as a consequence – outbreaks of water borne diseases, shortage of basic food, etc. According to UNDP Office in Dushanbe, 64% of people in Tajikistan subsist on less than $2 per day, and 41% of the country population does not have access to safe drinking water.

Matlubkhon Davlatov, State Advisor to the President acknowledged at a recent meeting with representatives of the international financial institutions that “the crisis has had a negative impact of food security in the country”. He added that “the industrial enterprises and the agrarian sector are in critical condition, which is undermining the economic reforms in the country”.

Shukurjon Zukhurov, Tajik Minister of Labor and Social Protection said that during 2007, salaries in Tajikistan had increased by 41% (and amounted on the average to $44 per capita); however, the inflation in 2007 had reached the level of 19,7%, which completely “swallowed” this achievement. During 2007, prices on wheat (the main food product for Tajikistani) have increased by 70%; and prices on oil products – by 50%. This has entailed a rise in prices on all products and services. It looks absurd, but independent observers say that the prices on certain products in Tajikistan (the poorest among the CIS countries) are much higher than those in the biggest and most expensive capitals of the world such as Moscow and New York.

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) intends to provide Tajikistan with and equivalent of $830 in the form of fuel, heaters, clothing, household supplies, and health services through the USAID implementing partners – Save the Children, CARE, and Mercy Corps. The US Department of State is also shipping 259 thousand humanitarian daily rations to Tajikistan. The total value of the rations, including transportation, is $1,6 million, bringing the total value of US Government humanitarian assistance to nearly $2,5 million.

Hydro energy accounts for about 80 percent of total power output in Tajikistan. Specialists of Barki Tojik, the Tajik energy holding say that the level of water in the Nurek hydropower facility’s reservoir (the biggest and the main source of hydropower in the country) is very low and close to critical. However, there is a hope that with the currently improving weather conditions, in a couple of weeks, the plant will be producing more power – sufficient to cover the main needs of both the population and the industrial enterprises. For the time being, Barki Tojik keeps applying a “limited power supply mode”, i.e. most of the districts in Dushanbe have electricity only during a few hours a day; stores, restaurants and other objects of infrastructure are cut off from the grid (some of them use their own diesel generators). As for the provinces, the situation there is even sadder.

There is another peculiarity in these conditions – despite the despair, the local media do not dare to criticize the authorities, whereas the social strain is quite palpable among the people at large. “We have double standards in our society, — says a well-known Tajik lawyer, — We see a number of new construction sites in Dushanbe – five-star hotels being erected… We see fancy cars and villas in the city. And everybody knows who these things belong to. These “masters of life” control the economy, but they are deaf to people’s cries. In spring we’ll be facing another serious threat – dirty water from the taps. And somebody will be appealing again for international assistance. It happens time and again…”

In order to overcome the crisis, the government has formed a special working group comprising representatives of key ministries. It would be inappropriate to criticize the authorities for “not-doing-anything”; on the contrary, a lot is being done. However, more than ten years have passed since the end of the civil war in Tajikistan, but the country remains prone to various calamities, and cannot cope with any serious problem alone.

Konstantin Parshin

Источник: NANSMIT

According to the Tajik Meteorological Service, this winter in Tajikistan is the harshest during the last 25 years. The situation is critical – practically, the whole infrastructure is in stagnation. Most of schools are dormant; it is very cold medical institutions. The government convenes extraordinary meetings, but the situation may change only in spring – it will get warmer.

Last week, Tajik news agency Asia Plus informed about the death of three infants in two maternity facilities in the capital. Because of the outages of electricity (agreed between the city energy company and the municipality), physicians failed to launch medical equipment (artificial ventilation for newly-born).

There has not been such a harsh winter in the contemporary history of Tajikistan. This season is especially tough – in dwelling areas of Dushanbe electricity is available only 2-3 hours a day. During the first weeks of January the temperature in the Tajik capital dropped down to minus 20 Celsius; in mountainous areas – to minus 30. One can only guess what’s going on in rural areas. Before the dissolution of the USSR and the civil war, the country had a decent infrastructure – schools, kindergartens and clinics worked in all weathers. The last seventeen years, winters in Tajikistan are test on survival.

On 15 January, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon ordered to increase power supply to Dushanbe by 1 million kW-hours. It was decided to take this amount of electricity from the Tajik Aluminum Plant (TADAZ). This is the only strategic object of Tajikistan’s infrastructure that works uninterruptedly. Specialists say that this “redeployment” of electricity would hardly improve the situation in the capital. It is impossible to take more out of TADAZ – otherwise, the enterprise is risking to loose its expensive electrolytic equipment. TADAZ is one of the top ten biggest aluminum plants. It needs daily up to 20 million kW-hours of power.

TADAZ is being fed by the Nurek hydropower plant, the biggest electric station in Central Asia built in the Soviet period (1961-1980). Nurek generates 98 percent of power in Tajikistan. Experts of the energy holding Barki Tojik say that this year, the level of water in the Nurek reservoir is the lowest ever; several turbines are currently switched off.

Tajikistan produces annually more than 17 billion kW-hours of power. TADAZ consumes more than a half of this amount; and the annual deficit of energy in the country is 3,5 billion kW-hours. There have been plenty of publications about the TADAZ top managers allegedly involved in machinations and embezzlement, due to which Tajikistan’s economy has lost enormous funds. Many times TADAZ has been blamed for huge arrears to the energy holding Barki Tojik.

On 20 January the Tajik government launched the first turbine of Sangtuda-1 hydropower plant, 200 from Dushanbe. The new object was called “the first step towards the alleviation of the energy crisis in Tajikistan”. However, according to sober estimates of experts, annual generation of 670 MW of power (by the end of 2008, it is expected to launch all three turbines of the plant) would resolve just a small part of the problem. Dushanbe alone consumes daily 12 million kW-hours of energy. Moreover, 75 percent of shares of the plant under construction belong to Russia’s Unified Energy Systems, and only 25 percent – to Tajikistan. It is not difficult to guess who will have the main profit from the enterprise.
In 2007, Tajikistan broke off relations with Russian Aluminum (RUSAL), which in 2004 promised to allocate up to $1,5 billion in construction of Roghun hydropower plant. Construction of Roghun started in 1976; in the early 1990-s the construction was frozen. Up to quite a recent time, Roghun was expected to become the largest water-energy object with the highest artificial dam in the world (335 meters). Last summer RUSAL and the Tajik government squabbled over the height and technical design of the dam.
Shortly after the departure of the Russian company, the Tajik government declared recommencement of construction works “under its own steam”. Many economists have openly criticized the inadequacy and absurdity of this intention – the project is long-term, and it would take not less that $100 million every year to keep it going. So far, Tajikistan has not found any investors; the annual budget of the country is less than $500 million; and the external debt is close to $1 billion.
Potentially, the launching of Roghun hydropower plant would help Tajikistan to resolve it energy problem, and even to start selling the surplus of power to the neighboring Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan. But the project remains on paper, and is being criticized by experts – the highest dam in the world is planned to be built in a seismicall hazardous region.
In 2007, it had become clear that the wide-scale construction of Roghun is impossible without an international or, at least, a regional water consortium. The Tajik President has been reminding his Central Asian neighbors about this at various fora and summits. So far, the idea has found a relative support only from Kyrgyzstan.
The investment climate in Tajikistan is very unattractive. According to the World Bank, the country is in the list of the most unfavorable in terms of business environment. In rural areas people survive mainly due to remittances from their relatives – labor migrants. The number of guest workers is difficult to estimate (according to some sources, there are more than one million of them working abroad; currently, the population of the country is about 7 million). According to the Tajik National Bank, in 2007, arrears in the amount of more that $1,2 billion has gone through domestic banks.
Another official figure – despite economic forecasts made at the beginning of 2007, inflation in Tajikistan has gone beyond 20 percent. Tajikistan is the leader among the CIS countries – not only in terms of inflation, but also in terms of poverty. The main food products are imported; for example, a pack of milk in a Dushanbe food store is 30 percent more expensive than that in a Moscow.
Apart from numerous problems in the spheres of social protection, education and heath (with scarce budget allocations), Tajikistan has another heavy burden – debts of Tajik cotton farmers to local and foreign futures companies. In 2007, the debt has grown to $500 million. On the one hand, the government annually develops new debt restructuring programs receiving loans and grants from international monetary institutions to resolve the problem; on the other hand, like in the Soviet times, the authorities establish annual plans on “strategic monoculture” – the “white gold”, which has totally bankrupted the peasants forcing them to go to Russia for earnings.
The authorities report that the level of poverty in Tajikistan has decreased to 57 percent. It is unclear what formula led to such indicators – the economy is in stagnation; there are very few new enterprises; and it is unclear how industry can work without electricity. At the end of 2007, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan promised to increase delivery of natural gas to Tajikistan; at the same time, the neighbors increased prices – up to $145 per one thousand cubic meters of gas.
At a recent press conference, head of Sughd province administration Kohir Rasoulzoda said that economic loss only from outages of electricity in his administrative area amounted to $6.7 million. It is difficult to estimate the economic loss across the country due to unwise policy of the Tajik authorities. Instead of rehabilitating the infrastructure, somebody prefers to erect five-star hotels (currently, there are five such objects in Dushanbe). On a hills in downtown area of the capital, there is an unfinished aqua park; and on the opposite hill – a new palace of Nation (construction works are terminated because the building is sinking).
In the meantime, social strain is growing; people are getting more cynical; they do not believe their government’s promises. There have been some allegations in the press about forthcoming increase of tariffs on electricity and gas – by 40 percent. This means new price boosts on all food products, all kinds of commodities and services. Even employees of international organizations accredited in the country are surprised – why the prices in the poorest of the former Soviet republics are higher than in developed industrial countries?
Spring is coming. It will get warmer, and one problem will be gone. However, after the first rains, residents of Dushanbe will face new challenges – for instance, brown water from taps, – because water purification facilities do not work properly; because somebody has stolen loans and grants. So it goes every year – new season, new seasonal problems.

Konstantin Parshin

Источник: NANSMIT

Tajikistan’s media environment registered a slight but perceptible deterioration in 2005, as mounting government attempts to strengthen control eroded constitutional guarantees of free speech. With parliamentary elections looming on February 27, police closed the Kayhon printing company in January 2005, seizing the print run of the independent newspaper Nerui Sukhan. Immediately before the elections, the authorities shut down the nongovernment television stations Somoniyon and Guli Bodom. The government kept up the pressure after the elections and Somoniyon remained closed at year’s end. Nerui Sukhan was briefly allowed to publish in July before its publication was once again suspended. In August, the independent weekly Ruzi Nav, which had been effectively shut down in 2004, managed to print 99 copies of one issue. The same month, independent newspaper Odamu Olam reappeared in print after an 11-month hiatus. For all practical purposes, the independent press was sidelined in 2005.
Two high-profile cases of jailed journalists dominated the news in 2005. Jumaboi Tolibov, a journalist and government official in Soghd province, received a two-year jail term after publishing articles critical of a local prosecutor. Tolibov was freed only in December-the country’s Supreme Court had earlier ordered his release, but prosecutors initially overruled that order on dubious legal grounds. Mukhtor Boqizoda, editor in chief of Nerui Sukhan, was sentenced to two years of partial wage garnishment for «stealing» electricity for his printing press from a streetlight. President Emomali Rakhmonov signed a decree in March ordering officials to hold regular press conferences, but independent observers charged that officials avoided tough questions and used these as forums primarily for touting their own achievements.
The country sustains numerous print media outlets and private television and radio stations, as well as six government television stations. However, the government also maintained a near freeze on the registration of new media outlets; in 2005, the Justice Ministry registered only one newspaper, Millat, which published materials on political issues, and two new radio stations. In September, a second national governmental television station, Safina, began broadcasting. Coverage on state-controlled broadcast media provided a favorable backdrop to authorities’ actions. The state maintained a strong presence on the media landscape through direct and indirect ownership, licensing requirements, control of printing facilities, and subsidies. International media were allowed to operate freely, even to the extent of offering rebroadcasts of Russian television and radio programs. Internet services are limited to less than 1 percent of the population, and websites with political content experienced attacks by hackers.

Freedom House

Источник: Freedom House

On 14 November, early in the morning citizens of the Tajik capital were shocked by a bang of a violent explosion. News agencies immediately reported that one person was killed – a local guard who came across a plastic bag near Kohi Vahdat, a concert-conference complex in downtown area. The bag contained an explosive device.

The conference complex is situated in vicinity to the President’s Palace, the Uzbek Embassy, the Tajik National Bank and a big hotel. The main premises of the ruling National Democratic Party is also located in Kohi Vahdat, which up to 1997 belonged to the Union of Tajik Theaters.

The bomb exploded half an hour before the beginning of the First Consultative Meeting for Disaster Risk Reduction in Central Asia – the event organized by the European Commission Humanitarian Office (ECHO). It was expected that Deputy Prime Minister Aqil Aqilov would attend the Conference.
Prosecutor of Dushanbe Kurbonali Muhabbatov said that the law enforcement agencies have launched an investigation. The main allegation forwarded so far by the National Security Committee is a terrorist attack.
That very morning, President of Tajikistan Emomali Rakhmon accompanied by a number of government officials left for the northern city of Khujand to celebrate the 15-th anniversary of the 16-th session of the Tajik Supreme Council – the historical event that had led the incumbent President to power.
Earlier this year, on 16 June a similar incident took place on the territory of the Tajik Supreme Court. No casualties were reported, but the premises were severely damaged. The authorities then made a similar statement saying that “certain terrorist forces stand behind the explosion”.
In 2005 unidentified criminals let off a bomb within a vehicle parked near the Ministry of Emergencies. Several civilians died in the explosion, and a few Ministry officers were injured. The law enforcement agencies also said that “the explosion is the doing of Islamic terrorists”.
As for the latest explosion (on 14 November 2007), there have not been any suppositions that the EU was the target of attackers. However, in July 2000, a Toyota Land Cruiser belonging to the ECHO office in Dushanbe exploded in downtown area, not far from the mayor’s office. One person died in that incident; four residents – among whom three were children – were injured.
Another similar case – three consecutive explosions in Dushanbe on 15 and 16 June 2006, near the Iranian embassy (one hundred meters from the Parliament), near the building of the Islamic Renaissance Party, and near the Tajik Constitutional Court. That was the only case where the criminals “were found”. According to investigators, those were several young hooligans; but the public at large did not buy the story. Experts commented that the explosions (though without casualties) were arranged in order to destabilize the situation on the eve of the presidential election in November 2006.
Officially, the civil conflict ended in Tajikistan in 1997, when the secular government and the so-called United Tajik Opposition (UTO) signed the Peace Agreement in Moscow (Tajikistan has recently celebrated the 10-th anniversary of this event). The last UTO gangs, however, were annihilated only in 2001. Since then, there have not been any militant clashes in the country; but explosions in Dushanbe occur quite frequently. What is peculiar about the explosions is that nobody claims responsibility, nobody puts forward any demands.
The Disaster Risk Reduction Conference organized by ECHO resumed its work on the same day and at the same venue (at 3 p.m. local time). However, the blast has raised a serious concern among the international organizations accredited in Tajikistan.
One of the foreign agencies has issued an International SOS Comment, saying that “allegedly, members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) might be involved in the attack”. The agency also has an allegation that “the latest attack may also be motivated by domestic political issues”, referring to “Emomali Rakhmon’s recent crackdown on political dissidents and Islamic opposition parties, which has evoked anger amongst various opposition and religious groups”.

The International SOS Comment says that “further attacks on government targets in Dushanbe and other regions of the country are likely”, and “a heightened state of alert and increased security measures in Dushanbe are anticipated”, thus advising expatriates to limit their travel to Tajikistan.

Tajikistan has made a number of commitments to the global community. The authorities are trying to attract investments so badly needed for industry and infrastructure. However, the Tajik leadership is being criticized by human rights watchdogs and the monetary institutions for non-fulfillment of its obligations, slow progress in improvement of the national legislation, unfavorable entrepreneurial environment in the country, and the reluctance to change the situation. Tajikistan’s economy largely depends on remittances from labor migrants, whereas the industry and agriculture remain in deep stagnation.

The Tajik leader Emomali Rakhmon tries to attract attention of the donor community and the closest neighbors calling them to jointly resolve economic and social problems, inevitably leading to local and regional conflicts, but most of his appeals remain unheard.

Konstantin Parshin

Источник: NANSMIT