March 20, 2015

WASHINGTON — The United States has finalized a review of its strategy for Central Asia, a region facing economic and political uncertainty tied to Russia’s flagging economy amid the Ukraine conflict and the murky succession plans of aging regional autocrats.

Experts say that while Russia’s military interference in Ukraine last year was not the sole factor prompting the review, the reassessment shows the Kremlin’s actions continue to cause ripple effects across U.S. foreign policy.

U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration «recently completed an interagency policy review, which reaffirmed our enduring commitment to the people and governments of Central Asia,» a U.S. State Department spokesperson told RFE/RL.

The State Department, which spearheaded the policy review, declined to disclose details of the assessment or when they would be available. People familiar with the matter said they expect conclusions of the review to be made public in the coming weeks.

A congressional staffer told RFE/RL that the strategy would likely be made public in the form of a document that would «lay out goals and objectives for the region.»

The State Department spokesperson said that United States «will continue to work» with Central Asian governments «to uphold regional security, increase economic integration with regional and global markets, demonstrate respect for human rights and democratic governance, and promote other bilateral and regional issues of mutual interest.»

Recent statements from senior U.S. officials indicate the updated policy will not differ radically from Washington’s previous Central Asia strategy, which includes the New Silk Road initiative aimed at boosting regional trade to promote stability following the departure of U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan.

While the pace of the New Silk Road plan has been sluggish, Richard Hoagland, the U.S. principal deputy assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian affairs, said in a March 18 speech in Washington that the initiative «is our long-term strategy to make Central Asia, including Afghanistan, once again a crossroads of global commerce.»

«Progress is happening. Since 2009, intraregional trade in Central Asia has increased by 49 percent, and since 2011 the cost of moving goods across regional borders has decreased by 15 percent,» Hoagland said, adding that «still much remains to be done.»

Experts on Central Asia say Washington’s New Silk Road strategy is being trumped by China’s aggressive push to build its own «Silk Road» trade routes through Central Asia, details of which Beijing is expected to releasethis month.

U.S. officials say U.S. and Chinese efforts in the region are not mutually exclusive and can complement one another.

Russia, meanwhile, has secured oil-rich Kazakhstan, the region’s largest economy, as a member of the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union, which another Central Asian republic, Kyrgyzstan, is set to join in May.

Kremlin Intentions

While the Central Asia policy review was not «strictly» prompted by Russia’s military incursion into Ukraine and subsequent annexation of Crimea in March 2014, Russia’s role in the conflict «certainly was on the minds of people who were putting that policy together,» says Paul Stronski, a former director for Russia and Central Asia on Obama’s National Security Council staff.

Senior U.S. officials discussing Central Asia in recent months have repeatedly said that Moscow has no right to force its agenda on governments in the region.

«We recognize that the countries of Central Asia have close political, economic, security, and people-to-people ties with Russia,» Hoagland said on March 18. «But we also maintain that no country has the right to unilaterally determine the political and economic orientation of another country.»

He added that «what Russia is doing in Ukraine is cause for concern for the countries of Central Asia» and accused Moscow of «blanketing» the region with «propaganda» that presents «a skewed and anti-American/anti-European interpretation of events.»

Russia has defended the annexation by claiming that Crimeans faced a threat of violent repression after Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych fled Kyiv amid street protests in February 2014, an argument Kremlin critics and Western governments dismiss as false.

Russia has also denied accusations by Kyiv and the West that it has provided arms and personnel to pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine.

John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Uzbekistan, says the events in Ukraine present a «specific twist» to the larger issue facing Central Asian states, namely how to «get along» surrounded by large powers who may not have «their best interests at heart.»

He noted comments by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said in August that «the Kazakhs never had any statehood» and that it would be beneficial for the Kazakh people to «remain in the greater Russian world.»

«Putin basically threw down a marker…when he called Kazakhstan an artificial country,» Herbst told RFE/RL.

Aging Autocrats

Both Stronski and Herbst say security threats, including the potential for Islamic extremism, remain serious in Central Asia as U.S. and NATO forces withdraw from Afghanistan. But while earlier U.S. policy in the region was focused largely on security issues, the updated U.S. policy needs to address «economic issues and some of the political modernization issues» in the region, Stronski told RFE/RL.

Central Asian governments have been hit hard by Russian financial troubles stemming from plummeting oil prices and Western sanctions. The falling ruble has dented remittances from millions of Central Asian migrants working in Russia and pressured local producers forced to compete against cheaper Russian goods.

Furthermore, the governments in the region — most notably in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan — face uncertain political futures. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev and Uzbek President Islam Karimov, both in their 70s, have announced plans to seek reelection this year in ballots almost certain to see them remain in power.

«We have countries that are very much still based on sort of personality-based politics and not institutional-based politics, and so this does create problems in the long term, particularly as you get some very old leaders,» Stronski said.

Financial industry players have voiced similar concerns as well. «Future policy choices are difficult to predict in the medium term because of uncertainty surrounding the eventual succession of Mr. Nazarbaev, who is 74 years old,» the Standard & Poor’s ratings agency noted this month.

Emomali Rahmon and Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, the respective strongmen presidents of Tajikistan and gas-rich Turkmenistan, are comparably entrenched atop their respective states with no clear successors.

Each of these leaders’ governments has faced criticism from rights watchdogs and Western officials for alleged rights abuses.

Senior U.S. officials insist they are raising these issues with Central Asian governments while saying a balanced approach is needed, a position some rights advocates criticize as a Faustian bargain to secure cooperation on counterterrorism and other security matters.

Fielding a question about a «new» U.S. strategy in Central Asia, Daniel Rosenblum, U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for Central Asia, told Voice of America’s Uzbek Service in January that the strategy addressed«political reforms» and «respect for human rights.»

«We have robust engagement with Uzbekistan on those issues, on issues of democracy and human rights, and on security, and we think it is possible to pursue both and try to maintain that balance in the relationship,» Rosenblum said.

http://www.rferl.org/content/central-asia-us-reassess-strategy/26911854.html

DUSHANBE — Tajik President Emomali Rahmon has called on prominent citizens in the Central Asian nation to outline a long-term «national development concept» that would establish a «democratic and secular country based on the rule of law.»

Speaking at an annual meeting with leading scholars, writers, artists and other figures on March 19, the long-ruling Rahmon said the development concept would guide the Central Asian country through the year 2050 and must be based firmly on its national interests.

He said it must «be mainly focused on the development of secularism and national and secular thinking.»

The emphasis on secularism follows an upsurge in arrests of alleged Islamist extremists and an election that pushed the poor, predominantly Muslim country’s only registered religious party out of parliament for the first time since the 1990s.

The Islamic Renaissance Party (IRPT) had come under increasing pressure from the authorities before failing to win enough votes to secure a place in parliament in a March 1 election marred by fraud allegations and criticized by international observers.

Rahmon’s speech coincided with a report that the trial of five alleged members of a banned Islamic group, Jamaat Ansarullah, had started in Tajikistan’s northern Sughd region on March 19.

The trial is the latest of several court proceedings across the poor, predominantly Muslim, country targeting alleged members of banned Islamic groups in recent months.

Tajik officials have also said recently that hundreds of Tajik citizens are fighting alongside Islamist militants in Syria and Iraq.

In December, Rahmon publicly branded the Islamic State militant group in the Middle East a «modern plague» that poses a «threat to global security.»

Rahmon has called young Tajiks who have left to fight in the Middle East «a potential threat to Tajikistan,» saying they could spread radical Islam in the country after returning home from Syria and Iraq.

Last month, Tajikistan’s newly appointed prosecutor-general, Yusuf Rahmonov, said that 41 criminal cases, mainly in absentia, had been launched against 85 Tajik nationals suspected of fighting or having fought in the Middle East.

Rahmonov also said that a special center tasked with investigating recruitment cases would begin operating soon.

Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said on March 5 that Moscow plans to bolster Russia’s military bases in Tajikistan and neighboring Kyrgyzstan due to an increase of activity by what he called «units» of the militant group Islamic State in Central Asia.

http://www.rferl.org/content/tajik-leader-call-for-national-concpet-for-development/26909599.html

Tajik President Emomali Rahmon has appointed his eldest son, Rustam Emomali, to head the Central Asian nation’s anticorruption agency.

Emomali, 27, was appointed on March 16 as director of the State Agency For Financial Control and Measures Against Corruption.

Emomali had been running Tajikistan’s Customs Service since late 2013.

His predcessor at the anticorruption agency, Abdufattoh Ghoib, was named as the Customs Service’s new chief.

Corruption is a major problem in Tajikistan and other former Soviet republics.

In other appointments, the chief of the government’s Committee for Television and Radio Broadcasting, Asadullo Rahmon, became a presidential adviser.

Rahmon, who is not related t the president, replaced Abdujabbor Azizi, who was elected to parliament on March 1.

Deputy Culture Minister Mahmadsaid Pirov was appointed as the new chief of the government’s Committee for Television and Radio Broadcasting.

http://www.rferl.org/content/tajik-prsident-appoints-son-to-head-anticorruption-agency/26903683.html

DUSHANBE — Two Tajik activists have each been sentenced to 16 1/2 years in prison for being members of a banned political opposition movement.

A Dushanbe court on March 13 found Firdavs Muhiddinov and Farhod Karimov guilty of insulting President Emomali Rahmon, being members of the banned opposition movement Group 24, and plotting to overthrow the government before handing them their sentences.

Karimov was arrested last year after police searched his computer and found photos they said «insulted» Rahmon.

Muhiddinov was detained for appearing online at a gathering of Tajik migrants in Russia and calling for Rahmon’s resignation.

Both men pleaded «partially guilty» and denied any association with Group 24, which was founded by fugitive tycoon Umarali Quvatov, who was shot dead in Istanbul on March 5.

The group was banned in October after being labelled an extremist group.

Activist Umedjon Solehov was sentenced last week to 17 1/2 years in prison on the same charges.

http://www.rferl.org/content/tajik-acrtivists-sentenced-for-association-with-quvatov/26899417.html

Media advocacy watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF) says it is unblocking access to nine news websites in an effort to combat online censorship by governments that violate human rights.

RSF said the move, dubbed Operation Collateral Freedom and launched on March 12 to mark the World Day Against Cyber-Censorship, will make the sites available in the 11 countries where they are currently banned.

The group said in a statement that it will unblock websites banned in countries designated as «Enemies of the Internet» by setting up mirrors, or copies, of the websites, allowing people there to access them.

The 11 countries are Russia, China, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Cuba, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

The websites include Grani.ru, which is blocked in Russia; Fergananews.com, which is blocked in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan; Gooya News, blocked in Iran; and the Tibet Post, which is blocked in China.

The group said it is using the technique known as “mirroring” to duplicate the banned websites and post the copies on the Internet servers of corporations such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.

RSF said the economic and political cost of blocking the servers of these Internet giants to render the mirror sites inaccessible would be too high.

«Our nine sites are therefore protected against censorship,» it said.

The Paris-based group said it is renting bandwidth for Operation Collateral Freedom, which will «gradually be used up as more and more people visit the mirror sites.»

RSF said it would maintain the sites at its own expense for several months and appealed to Internet users to donate money to help pay for additional bandwidth afterwards, «so that the mirror sites will be available for as long as possible.»

http://www.rferl.org/content/media-freedom-reporters-without-borders/26896537.html

Tajik opposition Group 24 movement has elected its new leadership after its founding leader Umarali Quvatov was shot dead in Istanbul, Turkey last week.

Quvatov’s cousin and business associate, 29-year-old Sharofiddin Gadoev, who has been living in self-imposed exile in Spain since 2013, told RFE/RL that the leading council of the Group 24 held its gathering on March 12 and elected him the movement’s new leader.

A Tajik businessman, Sobir Valiev, 26, was elected Gadoev’s deputy.

Gadoev declined to say where exactly the gathering was held. The majority of the movement’s members are living outside Tajikistan.

Gadoev also said that the Group 24 will continue its political activities opposing Tajik President Emomali Rahmon.

Tajik authorities banned Group 24 branding it extremist after the group called on Tajik citizens for anti-government protests in Dushanbe in October.

Two alleged members of the group are currently on trial. Last week, one activist was sentenced to 17 1/2 years in jail for being a member of Group 24.

Tajik opposition politician and businessman Umarali Quvatov was buried on March 9 in Istanbul, where media reports said three Tajik men were arrested on suspicion of involvement in his killing last week.

Quvatov’s relatives told RFE/RL that the burial at the Kilyos cemetery followed the janaza, the Islamic funeral prayer ceremony, conducted at the Fatih Mosque in Istanbul’s Fatih district.

Mourners unfurled a banner that said: «The killer of Tajik opposition leader, martyr Umarali Quvatov, is dictator Emomali Rahmon,» the Tajik president.

Quvatov’s wife, Kumriniso Hafizova, told RFE/RL on March 8 that her husband had been shot in the head on a street in Istanbul by an unidentified attacker last week.

Hafizova confirmed earlier reports saying that on March 5, she, Quvatov, and their two sons had been invited for dinner at the house of Sulaimon Qayumov, a 30-year-old Tajik citizen who has been residing in Istanbul for several months.

Hafizova said that she, Quvatov, and their sons felt sick after consuming food offered by Qayumov and rushed out for fresh air. An ambulance eventually arrived at around 10:30 p.m.

When they were outside, Hafizova said, an unidentified man approached Quvatov from behind and fired a single shot to his head before fleeing.

Quvatov died at the scene.

Hafizova and her two sons were hospitalized and diagnosed with poisoning. She was later released to take care of three other children who remain at home, while her two sons continue to receive treatment in the clinic.

According to Hafizova, an autopsy concluded that Quvatov was poisoned before being shot. It is not clear what substance was used to poison Quvatov and his family members.

Amnesty International issued a statement on March 6 calling on Turkish authorities to «lead an impartial, effective, and prompt investigation into» Quvatov’s «unlawful killing, reveal the full truth, and bring the perpetrators to justice.»

Turkish media reports said on March 9 that three Tajik men, including Qayumov, had been arrested on suspicion of involvement in Quvatov’s killing.

A tycoon who once had close ties with President Emomali Rahmon but became an opponent, Quvatov was wanted by Dushanbe on fraud charges that he said were politically motivated.

Quvatov, 47, left Tajikistan in 2012 and stayed in Russia and the United Arab Emirates before moving to Turkey.

Tajikistan formally requested his extradition in January.

Quvatov had worked for a company trading oil products that was headed by a relative of Rahmon.

After leaving Tajikistan, he accused Rahmon, who has governed Tajikistan since 1992, of corruption and nepotism.

Group 24, which Quvatov founded from abroad, has come under increasing pressure in the past year as Rahmon has sought to consolidate his grip on the poor former Soviet republic.

Tajikistan’s Supreme Court banned Group 24 in October, after the government labeled it an extremist group.

Tajik authorities had blocked hundreds of websites after Group 24 used social media to call for an antigovernment protest in Dushanbe on October 10.

Tajik Interior Minister Ramazon Rahimzoda said in January that several Group 24 members have been detained in Russia and were expected to be extradited to Tajikistan, and that three more associates of Quvatov were arrested in Tajikistan.

At least two Tajik activists have been sentenced to lengthy prison terms since October for their alleged association with Quvatov’s group.

Quvatov was killed four days after parliamentary elections that were marred by suspected violations, criticized by international observers, and dismissed as a «farce» by the Communist Party leader.

Rahmon’s party won the most votes, according to the official results, and no opposition party won any seats.

With reporting by Hurriyet and Haberturk.com

http://www.rferl.org/content/slain-tajik-opposition-tycoon-to-be-buried-in-istanbul/26889471.html

Umarali Quvatov was a fierce critic of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, the founder of a banned opposition party considered to be extremist by Dushanbe, and a tycoon-in-exile who faced fraud charges at home.

So his March 5 slaying on the streets of Istanbul, where he settled after fleeing Tajikistan in 2012, immediately led to questions of whether it was a politically motivated assassination.

Many came from fellow political opponents of Rahmon, whose ruling People’s Democratic Party just won a landslide victory in flawed parliamentary elections.

«Considering that Quvatov was a politician, his death concerns us,» said Rahmatullo Zoyirov, chairman of the Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan, which failed to win seats in the March 1 elections.

«His killing was not accidental. It was pre-planned,» he told RFE/RL’s Tajik Service the morning after the killing.

Murky Details

Details on Quvatov’s killing and the continuing investigation are scant. According to Turkish media, the 47-year-old Quvatov was shot once in the head from behind, at close range, by a Tajik-speaking man. The unidentified assailant immediately fled the scene.

ALSO READ: Tajik Opposition Tycoon Quvatov Killed In Istanbul

The attack took place in Istanbul’s central Fatih district at approximately 10:30 p.m., after Quvatov and his family had dined at the home of a Tajik citizenidentified only as «Suleyman.»

Quvatov’s cousin and leading Group 24 member, Sharofiddin Gadoev, told RFE/RL by telephone that the man was Sulaimon Qayumov, who had been living in Turkey for a few months and had portrayed himself as a Quvatov sympathizer.

Qayumov, who reportedly left the crime scene before investigators arrived, was arrested on the morning of March 6, according to Turkish media.

A video report by haberler.com aired images of Quvatov’s dead body, covered with newspapers, lying on a street cordoned off by police. His sobbing wife and children can be seen being led to emergency vehicles before Quvatov’s body is driven away.

Counterterrorism experts are reportedly involved in the homicide investigation.

Open Season On Opposition?

A representative of the Tajik Foreign Ministry, who spoke to RFE/RL on condition of anonymity early on March 6, said the ministry had only heard about the incident through the media and was awaiting official information from Turkey.

But the killing, coming just days after the slaying of Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov in Moscow, led some to draw parallels.

Rajabi Mirzo, an independent political analyst, described Quvatov’s death in a Facebook post as a «shameful and terrible event» that could be compared with Nemtsov’s killing. «Nemtsov was killed the day before the announced a rally, and Quvatov after the announcement of the [parliamentary] election results,» he wrote.

Tajik Communist Party Chairman Shodi Shabdolov, who recently called the March 1 elections «a political farce,» described Quvatov’s killing as a «bad signal.»

«He had no special authority or influence in Tajikistan,» Shabdolov said of Quvatov. «But he acted as an opposition leader, and killing him in this way, perhaps, could lead to protests.»

Quvatov’s supporters, meanwhile, have taken to social media to mourn the loss of their leader, with some suggesting the Tajik authorities were involved.

Leading Group 24 member Gadoev, who lives in exile in Spain, directly accused Tajik security services of the killing in a video posted on YouTubeon March 6.

«The Tajik government had been asking many governments, many times, to catch and extradite Umarali Quvatov to Tajikistan but did not succeed,» he said. «Killing him was the only way to silence the opposition.»

No Friend Of The President

Quvatov’s short political pedigree does not compare with that of Nemtsov’s, but the former tycoon had certainly riled the Tajik authorities in recent years. Rahmon’s government accused him of creating an extremist organization and seeking to change the constitutional order in Tajikistan.

Quvatov was once known as a successful businessman with close commercial ties to Rahmon’s family. But amid business disputes and allegations of fraud, Quvatov left the country in 2012 and went on to become an ardent critic of the Tajik government and media.

He established his opposition Group 24, which the Tajik Supreme Court banned just before a planned antipresidential rally in Dushanbe in 2014. His extradition was sought by Dushanbe after he was arrested in Turkey for visa violations, but he was released in February and relatively little had been heard from him since.

Doubts Raised

Despite his reputation as a thorn in Rahmon’s side, and the many who are quick to connect the Tajik government to Quvatov’s killing, Dushanbe itself has reserved comment pending further information.

Saifullo Safarov, deputy director at the Center for Strategic Studies, a Dushanbe-based think tank that is close to the presidential office, suggested Quvatov’s death was related to his business activities.

He said the Tajik government had no reason to go after Quvatov or other opposition figures living out of the country.

«The government does not care about them,» Safarov said. «They are free to live abroad.»

Written by Michael Scollon based on reporting by RFE/RL Tajik Service correspondents Salimjon Aioubov and Khiromon Bakoeva in Prague, and Mirzonabi Kholiqov in Dushanbe

http://www.rferl.org/content/tajikistan-quvatov-killing-turkey-opposition-nemtsov/26886088.html